Long Term SPY charts ...
#1
Posted 12 June 2007 - 07:33 PM
Should bottom just before Thanksgiving 2007 and then boom, ...., the start of a big mega rally topping as early as April 2009, more likely October 2009, and possibly as late as April-October 2010. After the top? The bears should rule into the 2014 major cycle bottom.
KC
#2
Posted 12 June 2007 - 08:57 PM
#3
Posted 12 June 2007 - 11:46 PM
Man-o-man KC135a, that is some high flying FF. I hope you're 'right-on' as I have a big honking market short on, expecting a drop, but nothing like you're showing. Do you think some big event is going to trigger this decline or what? I don't see any big cycles ending (other that a 37 week). Also, it shows '07 to end in negative territory and just about everyone that I have read is calling for a big up year for '07 (expecially da-cheif). Nice charts BTW!!!
This year is a hard call but I think we are seeing enough signs to expect quite a sell off into late fall. I am quite short but will be looking to cover around the DOW 12900/SPX 1460 area since there should be a reaction rally off of that low into October 4th setting up the final down draft bottoming just before Thanksgiving. I have the fall sell off and bottom coming in about 1 month later than the usual September-October bottoming process.
2008? It is a year ending in "8" and an election year. Regardless of a possible reaction low about February 2008, it should be a moon shot to at least April 2009 and more likely into October 2009 with an outside chance of a final top in 2010. From there, it should be straight down to the 40 year cycle bottom due October 2014. How low? I don't know but it should be ugly because it should be similar to the 1929-1934 or 1969-1974 bottoming process.
KC
#4
Posted 13 June 2007 - 01:30 AM
Man-o-man KC135a, that is some high flying FF. I hope you're 'right-on' as I have a big honking market short on, expecting a drop, but nothing like you're showing. Do you think some big event is going to trigger this decline or what? I don't see any big cycles ending (other that a 37 week). Also, it shows '07 to end in negative territory and just about everyone that I have read is calling for a big up year for '07 (expecially da-cheif). Nice charts BTW!!!
This year is a hard call but I think we are seeing enough signs to expect quite a sell off into late fall. I am quite short but will be looking to cover around the DOW 12900/SPX 1460 area since there should be a reaction rally off of that low into October 4th setting up the final down draft bottoming just before Thanksgiving. I have the fall sell off and bottom coming in about 1 month later than the usual September-October bottoming process.
2008? It is a year ending in "8" and an election year. Regardless of a possible reaction low about February 2008, it should be a moon shot to at least April 2009 and more likely into October 2009 with an outside chance of a final top in 2010. From there, it should be straight down to the 40 year cycle bottom due October 2014. How low? I don't know but it should be ugly because it should be similar to the 1929-1934 or 1969-1974 bottoming process.
KC