3 replies to this topic

[kc135a]

Some charts for consideration.

Should bottom just before Thanksgiving 2007 and then boom, ...., the start of a big mega rally topping as early as April 2009, more likely October 2009, and possibly as late as April-October 2010. After the top? The bears should rule into the 2014 major cycle bottom.






KC

[LongJohn]

Man-o-man KC135a, that is some high flying FF. I hope you're 'right-on' as I have a big honking market short on, expecting a drop, but nothing like you're showing. Do you think some big event is going to trigger this decline or what? I don't see any big cycles ending (other that a 37 week). Also, it shows '07 to end in negative territory and just about everyone that I have read is calling for a big up year for '07 (expecially da-cheif). Nice charts BTW!!!

[kc135a]

Man-o-man KC135a, that is some high flying FF. I hope you're 'right-on' as I have a big honking market short on, expecting a drop, but nothing like you're showing. Do you think some big event is going to trigger this decline or what? I don't see any big cycles ending (other that a 37 week). Also, it shows '07 to end in negative territory and just about everyone that I have read is calling for a big up year for '07 (expecially da-cheif). Nice charts BTW!!!

This year is a hard call but I think we are seeing enough signs to expect quite a sell off into late fall. I am quite short but will be looking to cover around the DOW 12900/SPX 1460 area since there should be a reaction rally off of that low into October 4th setting up the final down draft bottoming just before Thanksgiving. I have the fall sell off and bottom coming in about 1 month later than the usual September-October bottoming process.

2008? It is a year ending in "8" and an election year. Regardless of a possible reaction low about February 2008, it should be a moon shot to at least April 2009 and more likely into October 2009 with an outside chance of a final top in 2010. From there, it should be straight down to the 40 year cycle bottom due October 2014. How low? I don't know but it should be ugly because it should be similar to the 1929-1934 or 1969-1974 bottoming process.

KC

[rkd80]

The prognosis suggesting a bull run into 2009-2010 is extremely far fetched and is not in line with our economy. Not only does it suggest that the 5 year old bull market will have more life (doubtful), but that we are essentially still in the massive bull run since 1982 with 2000-2002 being a fluke? Of course everything is possible, but statistically UNLIKELY. We are probably heading into tough times in the next couple of years and looking at the long term chart of utilities will confirm that notion.

Man-o-man KC135a, that is some high flying FF. I hope you're 'right-on' as I have a big honking market short on, expecting a drop, but nothing like you're showing. Do you think some big event is going to trigger this decline or what? I don't see any big cycles ending (other that a 37 week). Also, it shows '07 to end in negative territory and just about everyone that I have read is calling for a big up year for '07 (expecially da-cheif). Nice charts BTW!!!

This year is a hard call but I think we are seeing enough signs to expect quite a sell off into late fall. I am quite short but will be looking to cover around the DOW 12900/SPX 1460 area since there should be a reaction rally off of that low into October 4th setting up the final down draft bottoming just before Thanksgiving. I have the fall sell off and bottom coming in about 1 month later than the usual September-October bottoming process.

2008? It is a year ending in "8" and an election year. Regardless of a possible reaction low about February 2008, it should be a moon shot to at least April 2009 and more likely into October 2009 with an outside chance of a final top in 2010. From there, it should be straight down to the 40 year cycle bottom due October 2014. How low? I don't know but it should be ugly because it should be similar to the 1929-1934 or 1969-1974 bottoming process.

KC