Seems like they've mounted a pretty good rally, a bit too soon, without enough pessimism.
I'm watching for a spot to get short.
Mark
Too Much, Too Soon?
Started by
OEXCHAOS
, Jun 13 2007 08:41 AM
15 replies to this topic
#1
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 13 June 2007 - 08:41 AM
Mark S Young
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#2
rkd80
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Posted 13 June 2007 - 08:45 AM
Seems like they've mounted a pretty good rally, a bit too soon, without enough pessimism.
I'm watching for a spot to get short.
Mark
mark,
would it be possible to see what you are looking at at this point in time that leads to believe that there is not enough bearishness?
thnx
rkd
“be right and sit tight”
#3
SemiBizz
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Posted 13 June 2007 - 08:56 AM
post a 5 day futures chart with volume and I can give you my take... I see us going much higher... my target is 2585.73 on Nasdaq. So far it's a light volume day, lighter than yesterday's 30 min. open. I'm waiting for that number to be tested to short this thing...
Edited by SemiBizz, 13 June 2007 - 09:03 AM.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
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Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#4
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 13 June 2007 - 09:07 AM
Semi....you lost me on that. You must be talking two different time frames?
...Semi speak with fork tongue. lol
Edited by Teaparty, 13 June 2007 - 09:07 AM.
#5
SemiBizz
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Posted 13 June 2007 - 09:10 AM
Semi....you lost me on that. You must be talking two different time frames?
...Semi speak with fork tongue. lol
meaning... a volume divergence is setting up.. whichever way we go is the wrong way. An inequitable situation sets up on light volume, allowing operators to move price like a hockey puck. To me, testing the lows from yesterday now only sets up a smoking, short covering rally trapping all the "smart" guys playing the fundamentals to be short.... 2585.73 high was tested to the penny on higher volume, the candle of reference low was not tested, that says we're going back up to test it again.
Edited by SemiBizz, 13 June 2007 - 09:16 AM.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#6
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 13 June 2007 - 09:30 AM
thanks semi....clear now.
#7
skott
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Posted 13 June 2007 - 10:02 AM
I"m short again circa 1504 cash
#8
skott
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Posted 13 June 2007 - 10:30 AM
took a quick 6 pts (using SDS which doubles leverage)
#9
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 13 June 2007 - 10:32 AM
Seems like they've mounted a pretty good rally, a bit too soon, without enough pessimism.
I'm watching for a spot to get short.
Mark
mark,
would it be possible to see what you are looking at at this point in time that leads to believe that there is not enough bearishness?
thnx
rkd
Rydex has the amateurs buying bull funds. Equity P/C sanguine. II still plenty of Bulls as with TheStreet.com.
Nothing says we can't go higher, per se, but the odds of it sticking are slim. The decline is not over.
Semi, I'll post some futures stuff when I get some time.
Mark
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#10
rkd80
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Posted 13 June 2007 - 11:11 AM
*nod* thanks Mark. Is the rydex information available to the average joe @ no cost? What you are describing sounds like COT data, but on a daily basis it seems?
I agree there seems to be unfinished business at lower levels as none of my indicators have indicated that a bottom was formed on neither a 60-min or daily basis. Today's rally therefore to me seems just like last Friday and should fizzle out by EOD or tomorrow morning. OPEX does not make things simple though.
I agree there seems to be unfinished business at lower levels as none of my indicators have indicated that a bottom was formed on neither a 60-min or daily basis. Today's rally therefore to me seems just like last Friday and should fizzle out by EOD or tomorrow morning. OPEX does not make things simple though.
Seems like they've mounted a pretty good rally, a bit too soon, without enough pessimism.
I'm watching for a spot to get short.
Mark
mark,
would it be possible to see what you are looking at at this point in time that leads to believe that there is not enough bearishness?
thnx
rkd
Rydex has the amateurs buying bull funds. Equity P/C sanguine. II still plenty of Bulls as with TheStreet.com.
Nothing says we can't go higher, per se, but the odds of it sticking are slim. The decline is not over.
Semi, I'll post some futures stuff when I get some time.
Mark
“be right and sit tight”
