7 replies to this topic

[Woody]

So we broke thru the 50% retrace and are bumping against what was support and is now resistance at 1525, next objective is 1540 based on Blue Lines below, a break below the 50% Retrace at 1515 implies a test of Lows or worse ...all Cash SnP of course.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=30&b=3&g=0&i=t63662546380&a=109269069&r=5645.png

[ogm]

I think if you consider longer term time frames( weekly for example) and look at underlying errosion in internals over the past few days/weeks, and MACD's and other indicators rolling over/weakening, then its not looking that bad. On top of that there is a feeling of capitulation in the air. And I mean long term bears are questioning themselves. Not just traders. Besides, the 10 year yield just can't hold on to any gains. Times they are changing. Most of my position shorts are in retail/real estate area, and the've been steadily erroding inspite of this rally. Look at JCP weekly chart for example. Multi week distribution pattern starting to break down. This won't be over tomorrow. What is happening now is bigger then that.

Edited by ogm, 14 June 2007 - 11:02 AM.

[denleo]

Woody, I think we are in a trading range, therefore short-term traders (myself included) are trying to trade both ways. I also think there are very few people who beleive the market will have a big decline. It can happen, but the probability is not high enough to bet on it. Just like it is not high enough to bet at this point that the market will go straight to new highs and beyond. Denleo

[ogm]

Woody, I think we are in a trading range, therefore short-term traders (myself included) are trying to trade both ways. I also think there are very few people who beleive the market will have a big decline. It can happen, but the probability is not high enough to bet on it. Just like it is not high enough to bet at this point that the market will go straight to new highs and beyond.

Denleo

What do you consider a big decline ? 10-15% correction isn't out of the question, considering monthly charts that haven't had any serious correction in 4 years.

Besides, internals are erroding steadily. This market isn't as strong as it looks.

I think we'll have a good size decline, then another rally into the end of the year with marginal new highs, and then bigger decline. At least thats how I see the monthly/weekly charts here.

This market has to throw bears a good size bone here. Too many beleivers in perpetual parabolas these days.

Edited by ogm, 14 June 2007 - 11:11 AM.

[jawndissedi]

I think if you consider longer term time frames( weekly for example) and look at underlying errosion in internals over the past few days/weeks, and MACD's and other indicators rolling over/weakening, then its not looking that bad.

On top of that there is a feeling of capitulation in the air. And I mean long term bears are questioning themselves. Not just traders.

Besides, the 10 year yield just can't hold on to any gains.

Times they are changing.


Most of my position shorts are in retail/real estate area, and the've been steadily erroding inspite of this rally.

Look at JCP weekly chart for example. Multi week distribution pattern starting to break down. This won't be over tomorrow. What is happening now is bigger then that.

There are times when statistical data doesn't really give you an appreciation of what's happening in the real world. For sense of what is already happening on the margins, click here.

Edited by jawndissedi, 14 June 2007 - 11:12 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

I love the whining you get from the early buyers. The outrage that the market doesn't care about their sense of entitlement. People never seem to get that real estate is an asset like any other. It goes up in value and it goes down in value. The reason folks think it's a "safe" investment is because they don't get so see a real bid and ask every day. Mark P.S. This is really good news for the stock market, however. We NEED more stories like this to take the pressure off the bonds and the Fed. Without it, the stock market is toast for a while. Mark

[skott]

we've had some really high tick readings this afternoon but unable to exceed this mornings highs. A/D line not keeping up with the market and tick spending a good bit of time in negative territory. Despite the hype this morning about bonds turning up and helping the market they are down today. I THINK we are going to at least test the recent lows but sentiment is starting to turn down in support of further upside if we do wash out but that is a day by day thing

[skott]

I'm guessing a pullback to 1520 spx by the close then up early tomorrow and then down for at least a few days