6 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Thoughts and comments at

http://nav-ta.blogsp...y-w-bottom.html

[rkd80]

Thoughts and comments at

http://nav-ta.blogsp...y-w-bottom.html

u might want to wait this week out before going all bullish on us

[relax]

MCO has not broken the falling trend and summation index formed a lower low than back in february

So I guess still early to turn completely bullish

Thoughts and comments at

http://nav-ta.blogsp...y-w-bottom.html

u might want to wait this week out before going all bullish on us

[vitaminm]

NYA


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA...id=p62927626912

next 9th week bottom has approximately 5 more weeks to go !!

[gti_99]

Sorry - wrong place.

Edited by gti_99, 16 June 2007 - 05:55 PM.

[thespookyone]

Hry Nav-loved reading your blog, and agree with much of what you have to say. Everyone has 20/20 vision, so if I don't comment about your thoughts now, I'd have to keep my mouth shut later. You may be right about being VST bullish-but I still don't see it. Yes what happened last week happened, but in the context of a huge expiration week-and in the case of the Q's-on very light volume. I think we differ in two thoughts. While you say it is "very low odds" to drop 25 Monday, I agree, but I wouldn't be surprized in the least if we did. On the fair drops we have had, volume came in like a freight train-and pushed pretty hard. Once momentum gets strong enough-any destination is possible. The other way I differ is where you say we will stay strong up for at least one to two weeks, going to a double top, or new high. Although I can easily see a new high, S+P cash just made a double top basically, "so far" and that is hard for me to ignore. For myself, I need to see what evolves at least Monday and Tuesday-before I am willing to commit, short term. For all the best TA available, a simple fundamental-like another turn in bonds can turn this market on a dime, rolling all indicators-right after everone gets their head handed to them. If we are going to new highs, I think the froth that abounds will take us there a lot faster than two weeks-maybe I'm wrong, time will tell. If and when we do get there, I think trouble clearly awaits, and like you, I think once there, we would face a much bigger drop. Although the technician in me is very bearish short term on the market-the trader me would gladly take a hit on those Q puts to have a shot at pulling the trigger North of here. I've been playing the market in terms of all the RST's that abound in the indexes, and my supposition has been that off our final hit on the top of the triangle, we go down to the lower right hand corner of it. I think a new top would provide just that opportunity, in the easiest way. Another hit on the top of the triangle would provide tons of thrust down. But, I really think if we are going to new highs, we still correct here, then take a shot at it. My change of thought is only that if we are to correct here, then go, the correction will be shallow to 1515 SPX cash or so. When I see how the market reacts there, I'll re-align my plays. If it becomes apparent we don't correct here, I'll try and judge speed-because if I see fast water ahead, I may just play in the box on my puts, if not, I'll take a short term hit, and bail. The way July is constructed, puts wise, the 21st is a long ways away. Downage will come a lot faster from the top, I feel, and the puts could easily still pay large. During times of high volatility. playing in the box can be great-I "almost" proved it last week money wise but DID confirm to myself that it is a viable strategy, the way the market is acting, and may act. Good trading to you! Spooky Spooky

[thespookyone]

Meant to say everyone has 20/20 rearview vision.