3 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

I find the jumps to be the most telling.
Find the extremes and you will find the turns.
Remember the sentiment measure is at the end of the trading day so the turn will be seen the next day or so.
The S&P has been a strong bullish uptrend so the bullish sentiment seems to only slow the rally where as the strong bearish sentiment seems to find a quick reversal.
Notice that there were only 4 bearish extremes in 3 months and really very few extremely bullish readings in a strong rally!
Notice also the switch in sentiment when support at the black line failed on June 7th, and failed a retest again on the 12th.
It would appear that failure of support really affects sentiment, as it should, but may also signal a short term low, especially when it finds another area of support as it did here around 1490.
No wonder so many get frustrated by what they see as a "failure" of TA.
The real warning sign would be failed support followed by a lack of bearishness!

PS: There was no change in sentiment following Friday's rally.
The "B"s are Bradley dates.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 June 2007 - 12:01 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Now what happened here?
Investors Intelligence
Bull/Bear ratio shows a bullish shift for June 12th


Whereas http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm shows a staggering shift to 14% bulls and 60% bears for June 10th.


While TSP http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.html
Shows a shift to 46% bulls and 38% bears for June 11-15th.
This followed a strong (and profitable) sell signal of 66% bulls and 18% bears.

Why did these sentiment measures differ so greatly last week?
My guess is that they are samples taken on different days in a very volatile market yet they are applied to an entire week.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 June 2007 - 11:42 AM.

[gti_99]

Hi, RD, The sentimentrader.com is now slightly on the "pink" side of neutral - just so slightly, although it has been on the middle neutral the last few days. What is your read on that? Thanks.

[Rogerdodger]

Hi, RD, The sentimentrader.com is now slightly on the "pink" side of neutral - just so slightly, although it has been on the middle neutral the last few days. What is your read on that? Thanks.

Shorter term moved Thursday and held steady Friday as shown below on Monday June 18th.
It's a bit more bullish than most of the readings for the past few months.
However the same set-up & readings occured Friday April 13, and Monday April 16.
Monday was up nearly 20 points and the week finished up 30 points!
TSP was a bit more bearish that week than they are now but both weeks show a buy.
We are a hair away from those early June highs.

What is interesting is the longer term has moved back up to neutral as indices approach all time highs.
In fact, it is close to the same readings as seen in April which produced a 70 point advance in the S&P.
The longer term was frozen for 3 weeks while the market rallied.

It seems like there continues to be a floor of doubt under the market with only occasional s/t exuberance.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 17 June 2007 - 11:15 AM.