21 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

I missed your multi decade Dow post so if you could direct me to it.

Here you go....and for others who have asked about this in the past.

Fib

[eminimee]

Thanks Dave.....so put my RED 1 as primary degree. . . .....Is your primary 1 at the 98 high to go along where breadth topped out? I can't tell if the numbers are placed there or at the 2000 highs.....If so ...that's a big expanded flat into the Oct. 02 low?

Edited by Teaparty, 18 June 2007 - 02:11 PM.

[arbman]

With all due respect, there is no meaning to all of this, there just isn't any pattern than a few cycles. The cycles merely repeat just enough to profit from them time to time, but that's about it and it is not an exact science either, otherwise it is another energetic system just like the rest of the universe...

[fib_1618]

Is your primary 1 at the 98 high to go along where breadth topped out? I can't tell if the numbers are placed there or at the 2000 highs.....If so ...that's a big expanded flat into the Oct. 02 low?

Yes, that would be the orthodox top, and it looks like this using the SPX as a guide:

With all due respect, there is no meaning to all of this, there just isn't any pattern than a few cycles. The cycles merely repeat just enough to profit from them time to time, but that's about it and it is not an exact science either, otherwise it is another energetic system just like the rest of the universe...

Have you worked with Elliott Wave analysis for any length of time?

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 18 June 2007 - 02:22 PM.

[Russ]

Thanks for your post Fib, based on your count what price are you looking for to complete primary 3?

[Jnavin]

Thanks, fib. Very nice work.

[skunk]

I missed your multi decade Dow post so if you could direct me to it.

Here you go....and for others who have asked about this in the past.

Fib

You may be right. But none of us will be alive to see the primary wave three come to a conclusion the way you have it counted, so who's going to congratulate you when you are proven correct?

I will have to say the label you have given as a primary wave 2(the purple 2) looks too short and shallow to fit into the way its labeled I may be wrong and you may be right we'll see in a hundred years.

Thanks for all your work on the board I like your take on the market.

[jawndissedi]

With all due respect, there is no meaning to all of this, there just isn't any pattern than a few cycles. The cycles merely repeat just enough to profit from them time to time, but that's about it and it is not an exact science either, otherwise it is another energetic system just like the rest of the universe...

You mean you haven't accepted Ralph Nelson Elliott as your personal financial savior? What a shame, kisa -- you're missing out on the joys of faith-based trading.

[fib_1618]

Thanks for your post Fib, based on your count what price are you looking for to complete primary 3?

Well....

Let's put it this way: there are many answers that would fit that question. What we do know is that wave 3 can not be the shortest wave - which means - it can be smaller than Primary wave 1 as long as Primary wave 5 is the shortest. Minimally speaking, one should look for wave three to extend .618 times the length of wave 1 after previous extensions (in this case), but with the A/D line at all time highs, I would be looking for waves 1 and 3 to equal each other in total points as a minimal expectation from the Primary wave 2 lows.

Then you have to consider the Dow divisor which, as we move higher, the point value will not only increase in amplitude, but the percentage gains should be as great, if not greater, than wave 1. We also know that wave 3's always present the best in breadth and volume statistics, which would then equate to still higher price levels as the liquidity factor of such events would be a natural fuel source for still higher equity values in total.

And, to put it another way, Don now has the ammunition necessary to forecast the kind of upside price objectives in which he has shared for many years now, especially with the NYAD at historic highs (both on a raw and ratio adjusted basis). And until the A/D line tops out, you're guess is really as good as mine as far as how high is high.

For now, it's steady as she goes until proven otherwise.

Fib

[fib_1618]

I will have to say the label you have given as a primary wave 2 (the purple 2) looks too short and shallow to fit into the way its labeled

That could be under the "does it have the right look" guideline.

But we also know that the basis of Elliott wave analysis comes with the mass psychology that accompanies such price pattern structures. And in this area, Primary wave 2's bottom was accompanied by as much angst (Iraq) as the 1932 bottom did (the Depression), but of one lesser degree....both times the very existence of the United States continuing to be a global power was called into question, and as we also know, it is the human condition to over react in panic mode than it does on the greed side of the equation. This then causes time "compressions" within the total wave structure (this is why impulse waves take more time than corrective waves to complete), and therefore, Primary 2 could indeed had taken only 4 years to trace out.

So using this general idea as a basis for conclusion, and thinking back to the underlying tone of the economic conditions over the last 80 years in which this chart represents, it does fit the pattern very nicely.

Fib