Edited by kisacik, 19 June 2007 - 07:32 AM.
Massive sell signal by several of my systems
#1
Posted 19 June 2007 - 07:28 AM
#2
Posted 19 June 2007 - 07:43 AM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#3
Posted 19 June 2007 - 07:44 AM
#4
Posted 19 June 2007 - 08:07 AM
I have very rarely seen in my backtests such a powerful line up. I posted here the deteriorating liquidity picture a few weeks ago and I indicated that the next rally would be most likely on a deteriorating breath, here it came with the bullish speculation.
I see about 81% cyclical sell strength on the entire market. This is a huge number and calls for a Feb 27th type decline.
This is combined with the extremely weak 131 trending break out indications for this rally as of Monday's close, down from 200 only two days ago, the breath absolutely deteriorated over the past 2 trading days. FYI, the peak b/o number was recorded around late April around 400, the number of break outs steadily declined since then. The number of break outs on Feb 22 was over 200 before the serious market correction.
I also posted here my historical pattern matches indicating lower close over the next 10 sessions earlier last week. There were more new lows last week and the new highs are also diverging at this point.
Now, add to all of this the near record bullish speculation flows over the past 4-5 days. Not only the majority of the traders covered, but many also speculated long.
I don't think we need to overanalyze this any further, a large correction will be here within days before the month is over...
- kisa
PS. my strongest sector sell signal is in oil and drillers.
#5
Posted 19 June 2007 - 08:13 AM
#6
Posted 19 June 2007 - 08:52 AM
Given what you said in NAV's post does your system 'require' that we have a blow-off rally?
There is always the little bit of noise, I hoped for a dumb rally, but I think the stop runs are all done last week, I close my eyes and sold short the open at whatever prices I was able to get...
#7
Posted 19 June 2007 - 08:59 AM
#8
Posted 19 June 2007 - 09:20 AM
Given what you said in NAV's post does your system 'require' that we have a blow-off rally?
There is always the little bit of noise, I hoped for a dumb rally, but I think the stop runs are all done last week, I close my eyes and sold short the open at whatever prices I was able to get...
yeah, you know i was thinking that trying to catch those few extra points that a dumb rally could produce might cost you more if the market starts selling off. i am fully short now too and like the rest of us will probably be watching at the quality of the sell-off.
#9
Posted 19 June 2007 - 09:47 AM
#10
Posted 19 June 2007 - 10:09 AM
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics