11 replies to this topic

[arbman]

You are welcome everyone, I continue to enjoy many outstanding posts here... Thanks Semi, I know the selling volume is what's needed from here. We only take the setups and see, but I see an IT sell off developing, we will see soon...

Edited by kisacik, 19 June 2007 - 10:26 AM.

[arbman]

So far the market goes up most of the time and corrects rapidly, although everything else is bearish, this is still a bit bullish... I guess the market will not go down significantly before the commercials unload their inventory completely and the commercials bought very aggressively 2-3 weeks ago, their very heavy borrowing also supports this. Although the Fed is not quite helping, they must be finding enough buyers out there... The equity option speculation is rising, but I guess it will be only some pullbacks from here. I am going to close my shorts in the days ahead and look for short term setups, at this point there is still more chance for a ST pull back than upside. I guess the market stays in a trading range until the next 20 wk cycle lows pass since the breath is still at the weak side. I think the upside must be limited due to the declining liquidity growth rate, but there is still quite a bit cash sloshing around, so the upper range might be still to be determined. So far, every dip ended up with more acceleration to the upside... This could take most of the summer, eventually there will be a good dip at the middle of the summer if the commercials become net short or much less long again by then and this retail speculation continues --I am sure it will... Last year after the strong initial runup in the summer, the Dec pause and the final rally into Feb took several weeks. The market might be at such a juncture (like Dec) if it doesn't manage to correct meaningfully in the next few days, then it will probably reaccelerate a bit into early July with the end of the quarter mark up, I don't want to be caught short for that... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 19 June 2007 - 12:46 PM.