7 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Counter-party Risk That could be a problem for this market. I don't think it's terminal, but there are a lot of complex derivatives and tons of leverage and lots of hands involved. There might be some surprise liquidations. I think that the lows will be seen. Mark

[selecto]

These forced liquidations and auctions we are starting to see will be for real money, and will show everybody what they already know: A lot of the go-go is worthless. The emperor has no clothes.

[Jnavin]

Who wants to buy some Bear Stearns right here?

[OEXCHAOS]

Who wants to buy some Bear Stearns right here?

Not with your money!



That one is probably worth a few puts.

[Mr Dev]

Counter-party Risk

That could be a problem for this market.
I don't think it's terminal, but there are a lot of complex derivatives and tons of leverage and lots of hands involved. There might be some surprise liquidations. I think that the lows will be seen.
Mark

Very interesting,... as I recall something similar,....and it started with Bank of America years back ..... around 87.

I was just comparing the yearly charts last night... the one I sent out to a few after my possible crash post two weeks ago...or there abouts.

Not sure if I can send you stuff but I'll try.

[rkd80]

Hey devster,

What are your thoughts about the market experiencing something like a 87 type crash? Are your more or less concerned than you were 2 weeks ago. Btw, i have started comparing 87 and now about 1.5 months back and the weekly charts are so similar its downright scary. the 87 chart did have a 10% correction before blasting off to parabolic highs.

rkd

Counter-party Risk

That could be a problem for this market.
I don't think it's terminal, but there are a lot of complex derivatives and tons of leverage and lots of hands involved. There might be some surprise liquidations. I think that the lows will be seen.
Mark

Very interesting,... as I recall something similar,....and it started with Bank of America years back ..... around 87.

I was just comparing the yearly charts last night... the one I sent out to a few after my possible crash post two weeks ago...or there abouts.

Not sure if I can send you stuff but I'll try.

[OEXCHAOS]

87 is an analog that I've been looking at too. This ain't 87, but the general shape could be similar, sans the major panic. Mark

[rkd80]

Right on Mark, we are on in the first stage of it. What is most notable is the dual channel break out I think. Dow broke out out of 4 year channel, based a little and then broke out again. Just like it did in 1987. Here are two charts to illustrate:

BIG charts:

1987

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IND...2&listNum=5

2007

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IND...4&listNum=5


Notice how both are trading above the 2nd channels, both are in a rising wedge formation. we are almost matching the breakout patterns week for week. This past few weeks however looks something April-March of '87. So if the pattern continues we should sell off some more (few weeks) and then blast off.

-rkd

87 is an analog that I've been looking at too.

This ain't 87, but the general shape could be similar, sans the major panic.

Mark