5 replies to this topic

[toni]

Apparently Tuffy is not coming back here. Someone named Frank posted about the IBD method here. He also seemed to know what he was talking about. If you are reading this Frank tell us what you think now. Would appreciate it. Sure wish someone here would post their trades in real time and be right for 4 &1/2 years the way Charles was. He said buy SPY at 09:23AM at XXX. When he sold he posted sell SPY at XXX. Posted within 5 minuets of his trade. No wiggle room there. And right on the money for 4 & 1/2 years. Miss him. toni

[selecto]

Toni, that system is mechanical from data taken off IBD. Couple hours of research, and you should be able to duplicate it.

I do know that the system does not like 5 distribution days in a month's period:

[fwsnkjv]

Apparently Tuffy is not coming back here. Someone named Frank posted about the IBD method here. He also seemed to know what he was talking about. If you are reading this Frank tell us what you think now. Would appreciate it.

Sure wish someone here would post their trades in real time and be right for 4 &1/2 years the way Charles was. He said buy SPY at 09:23AM at XXX. When he sold he posted sell SPY at XXX. Posted within 5 minuets of his trade. No wiggle room there. And right on the money for 4 & 1/2 years. Miss him.

toni

Toni,

Charles has his most recent opinions posted on Swing Waves, and as of 6-7 he was out of the markets in his trading account. The IBD system is really easy to follow if you simply subscribe to the paper. The charts posted by Solecto are very good. You get a password and you can log on at night to get that day's action & commentary. Right now, they are still calling this a confirmed rally, and if it goes any lower, IMO they will call it a rally under pressure. Charles was out based on the idea of playing it safe and the number of distribution days. I could come here and post all the IBD comments, but the paper itself will admit that there is a lot of subjective input necessary. For example, the market went down on Friday on higher volume, but there was the Russell rebalancing, so it does not count as a stiff distribution day. I have also gotten nervous, and sold some of my holdings, and the next few days will help to be instructive, I believe. If we go back up and test the highs on low volume, and then start to correct on clearly distribution type volume, I will be out in certain accounts. One thing to keep in mind with the IBD system is that they rely heavily on the action of top rated (according to them) stocks. They really emphaisize RS and EPS growth. The various ratings are all in their newspaper and easy to figure out. One thing to note in the current market environment is that most of the top rated stocks that have broken out in recent weeks/months are still in pretty good shape. For example, if you see Google and Apple start to fail on high volume, that will be a telltale sign.



I am mostly a lurker here, and not very sophisticated compared to the pros you will meet here. But, I do like the IBD system, because using it along with some other things has been very helpful to me. If you get a copy of William O'Niel's book, you will get further insight. They have other publications that explain things as well. Hope that helps.

Frank

Edited by fwsnkjv, 23 June 2007 - 04:56 PM.

[selecto]

Thabnks, Frank. "They" say that the selling Friday was because of the need to buy the RUT because of the rebalancing, yet the RUT also closed down.

[toni]

Sent tuffy an e-mail last night. Got an answer from him this morning. He said his trading portfolio is all in SHY at this time. Making his total asset allocation 50-50 stock-bond index funds. That is in the allocation for his permanent investment account & his trading account combined. He plans on leaving it there until the market stabalizes. Going from Shy to SPY in trading account after the next confirmation day. He says he hasen't any idea when that will be & doesen't believe anyone else does either. He says the market is effiecent and no one can predict anything about what it will do in the future. But he said he is tired of being hit in the head with thrown brickbats here for saying that here. toni

Edited by toni, 24 June 2007 - 11:23 AM.

[selecto]

He was way too sensitive. Nobody was hitting him. He comes to a TA board and states catergorically that nobody can call the market's future, and then gets all offended about the discussion that ensues.

Speaking of bats, LOL!