8 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

On or around July 9/10 , with a possible double top or wee new high July 20th....if WWW has a say in this. Any close below 1485 before new highs...then wrong. Two paths...an ED or ascending tri.....I favor the ED as volatility should stay elevated (and would lend itself to a WWW)....but both will hit same target.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=5&dy=21&i=p25314826988&a=79672211&r=2011.png

[eminimee]

PS: on the very short term....we still may need another we low 1498 spx....possible if we do.

[mdwllc]

On or around July 9/10 , with a possible double top or wee new high July 20th....if WWW has a say in this. Any close below 1485 before new highs...then wrong. Two paths...an ED or ascending tri.....I favor the ED as volatility should stay elevated (and would lend itself to a WWW)....but both will hit same target.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=5&dy=21&i=p25314826988&a=79672211&r=2011.png

TP: I am assuming this scenario negates the 10-15% drop in the previous S&P posting; if not, could you correct me? TIA Mike

[eminimee]

Mike...no...I'm saying 10 to 12% after the top is hit....if the tops in already...then 10 to 12 % down from 1541....but I don't think it's in yet.

[thespookyone]

I'm sure this is a stupid question, but-any chance that after the 3 we had a trunkated fifth up there?

[eminimee]

Spooky..if I could answer that and be right....I wouldn't still be doing this. lol Are you asking if we get that 3rd wave and we truncate the 5th...?? If so ...sure it's possible.....but truncations are not common.

Edited by Teaparty, 25 June 2007 - 09:46 AM.

[thespookyone]

I guess what I'm really wondering, is:could we just have completed a wave 1 down, and be bouncing to 2 on a five wave down?

[eminimee]

depends on if we see a 5 up here....will know more by the end of the day....hopefully. All depends on what this up move looks like. So to answer your question...sure.....what you are asking is not easy to say as the waves have to be analysed as they progress. I bought the low, and have been in and out...just bought 23 again....I've got buys kicking in on 15 min. Besides wave count, I gave some other reasons for why we could see anothr high over the weekend...the relative strength on the q's vs spy is compelling...and most of all ZB and TLT up in a C wave of a 4 to relieve pressure on upward rates....rates are falling today

Edited by Teaparty, 25 June 2007 - 11:12 AM.

[thespookyone]

Thanks, Teaparty, just a thought on my part, as to the possibilities. A top of a 2 down, followed by a bit of sideways action-would probably get the "powers that be" through end of quarter-while still providing them a huge move right after. I guess time will tell.

Edited by thespookyone, 25 June 2007 - 11:22 AM.