10 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

we have approx 4 1/2 weeks to go to reach the late july nominal 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows. as mentioned a few months back, there was a good possibilty the very strong cyclic trend larger than 4.5 yrs could keep the movement into that cycle low somewhat benign and so far that's been the case. there does remain risk that the correction could deepen. SPX cash still has a nominal 10 wk price projection to the 1470 +/- 7 pts area that if achieved could trigger a lower price projection to the low 1400's. the INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system remains on it's strongest sell signal, and Dunnigan's one way formula remains on it's recent sell/short. i remain short sep es's at an avg price of 1533.60.

[Bob-C]

we have approx 4 1/2 weeks to go to reach the late july nominal 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows. as mentioned a few months back, there was a good possibilty the very strong cyclic trend larger than 4.5 yrs could keep the movement into that cycle low somewhat benign and so far that's been the case. there does remain risk that the correction could deepen. SPX cash still has a nominal 10 wk price projection to the 1470 +/- 7 pts area that if achieved could trigger a lower price projection to the low 1400's. the INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system remains on it's strongest sell signal, and Dunnigan's one way formula remains on it's recent sell/short. i remain short sep es's at an avg price of 1533.60.

Hi airedale88, thanks for the cycles update and projections.

Cheers,

Bob-C

[bighouse1006]

Hi Airedale, Thanks for the update. Are there any short term cycle dates that bottom this week? Paul

[arbman]

I don't know Airedale, all of the stuff that I have says the ST bottom is finally here. I bought the gap down and I still didn't have chance to sell Now, this has to bounce well --I expect a violent move up-- and honestly, the market is not a whole lot down from last Friday when I made the initial call that I corrected over the weekend. I hoped that this price low would come by Tuesday morning, but the market sure took its time to absorb the supply. This is based on some longer cycles as well, not only the shortest cycles, there is still not a big enough price target developing to the downside yet apart from the financials... Good luck...

[Cirrus]

airedale Great job. Very impressed with your trading.

[Woody]

Thanks for the update, keep us posted!

[NAV]

airedale, You are the only cycles analyst i understand. Clear and consistent. Thanks for your updates.

[arbman]

Airedale, actually I have a question for you, this would make more sense...

Would you cover here (or take partial profits), if you'd thought that 50% of the losses from the top could be retraced over the next few sessions or you would rather add to your position and keep your core short position?

I think all of my argument comes from the trading timeframes, although I see down for the IT, I would rather trade anything over a few percent moves in either direction. I actually see more downside all summer, but it might not amount to much until early August, I think it will accelerate into Oct...

Thanks for sharing your work again...
- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 27 June 2007 - 11:25 AM.

[VolPivots]

aire,

curious to see how you have your 18month phasings? reason I ask is because of the chart below....all the vertical bars are 18month lows.....today marks the next date in the sequence. tia, mn

[airedale88]

market, i have the march 14/07 low as the third nominal 20 wk low of the four that should comprise this current nominal 80 wk cycle. we have about 4 1/2 wks to go to complete this current 20 wk low which would mark the next low of the 40 wk, 80 wk, and current 4.5 yr cycle.