11 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

High again. I'm not liking this rally. Too soon. We needed more scary stuff, and a nice high volume reversal, I think. Mark

[kamakazeman]

High again. I'm not liking this rally. Too soon. We needed more scary stuff, and a nice high volume reversal, I think. Mark

Hello Mark!
Whaaaaaaaaay back when, you and I chatted on the phone, (imagine!), we discussed the intra-day arms.
Your point at that time was that the intra-day figure did not mean much., that it was the end of day arms figure that was important. I was (and am) inclined to watch the trin intra-day (on the NYSE) for what I hope will be directional clues.

It apears that you may have changed your mind, so I'd be grateful if it is convenient for you to share your views on the intra-day arms and how one might make best use of it.
Thsnks,
Mike

[Mr Dev]

High again. I'm not liking this rally. Too soon. We needed more scary stuff, and a nice high volume reversal, I think.

Mark

now now stop that ..ya know you gotta give it some time,.,.. if the large position moves off the bullish side.. before collecting

its due.. (less than 50% chance ) then the will likely do it right near the close....remember they know that pulling out a large

amount can adversely affect their gians.

Edited by Mr Dev, 27 June 2007 - 10:25 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

High again. I'm not liking this rally. Too soon. We needed more scary stuff, and a nice high volume reversal, I think. Mark

Hello Mark!
Whaaaaaaaaay back when, you and I chatted on the phone, (imagine!), we discussed the intra-day arms.
Your point at that time was that the intra-day figure did not mean much., that it was the end of day arms figure that was important. I was (and am) inclined to watch the trin intra-day (on the NYSE) for what I hope will be directional clues.

It apears that you may have changed your mind, so I'd be grateful if it is convenient for you to share your views on the intra-day arms and how one might make best use of it.
Thsnks,
Mike

Hi, Mike!

Good to see you around. Mike is an old time Fearless Forecaster from the AOL days, for those who don't know him or who weren't around back then.

The end of day ARMs was part of a model that I used to trade options with and based upon how I was crunching those numbers, I couldn't look at the intra-day. Over the years, I've moved to the futures and shortened many of my time horizons. I noted on shorter terms, intra-day ARMS are very useful. I've discussed it here many a time ( you can search the site for me and ARMS).

Anyway, I look at the ARMs for confirmation with the price action. When I don't see that, then I can conclude that there's either distribution under cover of strength or accumulation under cover of weakness going on and that implies that the move isn't for real.

Then I start looking for a place to fade the move.

Volume and the $-weighted options data help there.

Mark

[arbman]

On nasdaq having an A/D volume ratio of 2.23 with nominal A/D ratio of 1.1 does not make any sense to me, the indices are bouncing very selectively yet. Probably the morning capitulation was not enough...

[rkd80]

On nasdaq having an A/D volume ratio of 2.23 with nominal A/D ratio of 1.1 does not make any sense to me, the indices are bouncing very selectively yet. Probably the morning capitulation was not enough...

both es and nq are struggling at TL resistance lines and momentum is starting to diverge. seems like we are in need of a pullback and we will see where it takes us.

[arbman]

Heh! It chose to accelerate... still a bit long, tight stops...

[kamakazeman]

[quote name='OEXCHAOS' date='Jun 27 2007, 11:32 AM' post='296455']
[quote name='kamakazeman' post='296444' date='Jun 27 2007, 11:08 AM'] [quote name='OEXCHAOS' post='296440' date='Jun 27 2007, 10:56 AM']
High again. I'm not liking this rally. Too soon. We needed more scary stuff, and a nice high volume reversal,
---------

Anyway, I look at the ARMs for confirmation with the price action. When I don't see that, then I can conclude that there's either distribution under cover of strength or accumulation under cover of weakness going on and that implies that the move isn't for real.

Then I start looking for a place to fade the move.
Volume and the $-weighted options data help there.
Mark
[/quote]

Thanks Mark!
Yes, I've mostly "lurked" and somehow stayed solvent all these years.......
never did get the hang of options.....
Thx for the explain, your current appproach suits my approach better.
Signals confused, did nothing, when in doubt stay out rule appears to have been good advice so far.
What little rally that's occurred from my decion point at 10:30 has not been worth aggravaton.The arms/trin has come down and event tho the tick is trending up, nothing much us happening.(BTW, I think the tick is a sadly overlooked indicator. any thoughts?).
Any reason to expect much movement from here today?
thx
Mike

[arbman]

BTW, today the weaker NYSE stocks are being more bid up according to the tick readings...

[OEXCHAOS]

Lower arms and nothing volume leaves me agnostic. The advance, actually, looks too orderly. Odd, in fact. But no reason to short yet. Mark