3 replies to this topic

[thespookyone]

Just went to cboe at the end of the day, as I always do, and, UH OH! I watched the equity and index put and call buying once in a while during the day(half hour data) and noticed nothing unusual-same basic trend. BUT, when I checked afterhours today, index PC from yesterdays 2.01 went to 1.01 today, and from what I can see, it had to be mostly in the last hour-OUCH. Equity PC from .70 yesterday to .65 today-so small players got a bit more bullish as well, but sometimes all players one way makes for fast water-for a moment anyway. If that data isn't wrong, and large players in effect "cashed their bets" today, and reversed-we could be in for a pretty serious bump up the next couple days-lets see. Spooky

Edited by thespookyone, 27 June 2007 - 06:06 PM.

[Mr Dev]

Just went to cboe at the end of the day, as I always do, and, UH OH! I watched the equity and index put and call buying once in a while during the day(half hour data) and noticed nothing unusual-same basic trend. BUT, when I checked afterhours today, index PC from yesterdays 2.01 went to 1.01 today, and from what I can see, it had to be mostly in the last hour-OUCH. Equity PC from .70 yesterday to .65 today-so small players got a bit more bullish as well, but sometimes all players one way makes for fast water-for a moment anyway. If that data isn't wrong, and large players in effect "cashed their bets" today, and reversed-we could be in for a pretty serious bump up the next couple days-lets see.

Spooky

Wow spooky

I think you might have some of this mixed.

First I think Mark,,,he'll correct me if I'm wrong, was smelling something meaning.... the expected Up move

may not happen.! I thought he said he was loosing his confidence in its possibilities .

And from todays action I feel the smaller players had lil or no choices but to get bullish... but the larger players........ they were already ahead of this game by being Long.

And if ,...as you say the large players..."cashed their bets" that would be telling me..... we could be in for
a pretty serious Drop lower in the next open.

After that is taken into consideration ,......there is a possibility that the ratio charts that gave their cover
signals yesterday and the confirmed long signals today........

could well be topping out in the next two to three days.

So st term look out below...is very possible... 1-2 days a push higher has already been confirmed but may
be topping within that timeframe.

Not predicting here .....just sharing what I see on the charts.

good luck playing it either way

Edited by Mr Dev, 27 June 2007 - 06:20 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

The OEX $-weighted P/C is very low, that's a sell. But you've got a little time with that, too. This is a perfect time to really jerk us around. The rally sucks, but the seasonal is wonderful. The volume says we retest, but will it wait until after the holiday? I didn't short this thing today, because I never saw a set up. We did hit a reasonable upside target, however. Mark

[thespookyone]

Hi Mr Dev-Thanks for your comments. I agree with most of what I think you are saying. As far as the next few days action goes-I think it matters whether they just cashed their short bets this morning, then flipped(as some of us do, hehe)-or if they cashed and are waiting to retake new positions still. If they cashed shorts and went long, and are still holding-we would have to judge their greed, no small task. From what I have seen, big players bets have been very short term lately, much like ours. I don't expect the upside in the market to last long either, and I'll be looking for the right place to reshort. I couldn't pull the trigger short at the end of the day because of tomorrows Fed and the fact that a holiday is coming up. Those low volume pre holiday days seem to lend themselves to helium pump ups historicaly-and I don't want to be in anyones way(until near the end of the pre holiday close). I will stay flexible, however, as always. I'll moo or growl-whichever looks to pay. I just much prefer being short with the index PC high. Mark: "This is a perfect time to really jerk us around." Bet that!

Edited by thespookyone, 27 June 2007 - 06:38 PM.