2 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Normally, the 2nd best (most often up) day for the stockmarket is the Wednesday of July OPEX.
Mike Burk's 1st week of July:
"During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 89% of the time and had an average gain of 1.57% making it one of the strongest weeks of the entire 4 year Presidential Cycle. The NASDAQ hasn't been too shabby either up 73% of the time with an average gain of 1.19%.
Over all years the SPX has been up 71% of the time with an average return of 0.90% while the OTC has been up 57%"

Here are a couple of charts of interest which have nothing to do with what will happen but...
I am compelled by some strange force to post them.
This is from Kisacik earlier:
Notice the tendency for a mid July turn.



And this Bradley I got off of a google search.
See the mid June turn. (June 14th Bradley.)
Notice the late July turn is fairly close to Airedale's bottom.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 July 2007 - 10:25 AM.

[arbman]

That's right Rodger, if it is going to break down, it will be about next week or two, otherwise a trading range will eventually resolve into some sort of higher prices beyond next week into the July OPEX. A sell off after the July OPEX is given, imho, both cyclically and seasonally, especially if the market breath does not improve much. The money supply's growth rate is still subpar with the previous months, so there is no new compounding effect or liquidity coming into the markets for the summer. The increase in the volatility is an indication of a crunch already, so this market is still in trouble beyond August until the end of fall, imho... Q2 is out of the way, if the boyz are looking to give any discount, it is the perfect time...

[Rogerdodger]

"The increase in the volatility is an indication of a crunch already" Sounds about right.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 30 June 2007 - 10:08 PM.