10 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

I was reading an article from moneyshow.com about the ARMS or TRIN.
Tom Aspray uses a 34EMA of the arms. As he explains:

"As you see from these examples, it is not that the Arms Index will give you a concrete reason to buy or sell, but can give you a reason not to sell by signaling proximity to a price low. One modification that I use to determine the intermediate-term overbought/oversold condition of the US stock market is to run a 34-period exponential moving average (EMA) of the Arms Index."

Now look at this chart.
I have inverted the trin to make lows and highs correspond with the nyse.
The inverted Trin is invisible here and only shows the 34EMA in green.
notice the end of the chart.
Isn't that a positive looking divergence?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$ONE:$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p12221228988&a=110811008&r=8828.png


PS: With today's nice rally, sentimentrader.com was...unmoved.
Lowrisk as of 7/1 was 32% bulls 54% bears.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 July 2007 - 09:37 PM.

[rkd80]

thats not a divergence, nyse made a higher low.

I was reading an article from moneyshow.com about the ARMS or TRIN.
Tom Aspray uses a 34EMA of the arms. As he explains:

"As you see from these examples, it is not that the Arms Index will give you a concrete reason to buy or sell, but can give you a reason not to sell by signaling proximity to a price low. One modification that I use to determine the intermediate-term overbought/oversold condition of the US stock market is to run a 34-period exponential moving average (EMA) of the Arms Index."

Now look at this chart.
I have inverted the trin to make lows and highs correspond with the nyse.
The inverted Trin is invisible here and only shows the 34EMA in green.
notice the end of the chart.
Isn't that a positive looking divergence?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$ONE:$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p12221228988&a=110811008&r=8828.png


PS: With today's nice rally, sentimentrader.com was...unmoved.

[Rogerdodger]

That's not what I'm looking at. I see the price moving up nicely while the $TRIN stays oversold.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 July 2007 - 09:46 PM.

[slatedrake]

Cool chart Roger. I was looking at something similar on a weekly basis a little while ago.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p00432652920&a=109947537&r=7722&.png

[rkd80]

That's not what I'm looking at.
I see the price moving up nicely while the $TRIN stays oversold.

hmm, so you are saying it's basically lagging..which in the case of trin is a positive development. maybe...maybe...

[Rogerdodger]

maybe...maybe... Exactly. I have not looked at this in enough time frames to be confident. But it seems that if it (trin 34ema) shoots up sharply (overbought) while the price moves up less, it indicates a pullback. And vice versa. Look what it did that first week of June when price barely budged but the TRIN 34ma zoomed up. Price reversed briefly. I would not have posted this or even gave it a second look if they both moved in tandem. It's the little differences or divergences I find telling...sometimes...maybe. And remember, I have the trin inverted to show up these differences more clearly. . Maybe.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 July 2007 - 10:56 PM.

[rkd80]

Actually, this is an interesting chart. I made the same, but used $SPX and the differences are striking. Quite a few scenarios where the trin ratio shot up way above the price and resulted in pull backs about 80% of hte time and vice verse, way underperforming the underlying contract and the market rallied. I like it.

[eminimee]

I'm happy to give Tom the idea of using a 34ema on things like that.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p86123564741&a=74401962&r=8729.png

[eminimee]

I've posted this before...tracking the 34 ema of both trinq and trin..

This is if the 1527 holds the upside and ndx/QQQQ turns down from the ED. Also see TLT and TNX I posted up top.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p23801270498&a=106330327&r=2852.png

[mss]