22 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

AN EXPLODING STARK MARKET......and most will be asking HOW COME.....LMAO....seen it all before.......snort

[pdx5]

Hmmmm...that seems to be in polar opposite of conventional wisdom? Do you recall past periods when that actually hapenned?

[eminimee]

Quite frankly I don't think ten year rates will get above 5.4% but even that will have to get priced in with another low on spx. . . . over 5.4% the adjustment will be have to be a little more painful.... ....but in the long run....I agree with the old fart.....rising rates from these levels can be quite bullish as long as it's gradual. Personally I think rates will remain in the sweet spot for quite awhile longer. . . probably staying in a range between 4.5 and 5.5.

[da_cheif]

Hmmmm...that seems to be in polar opposite of conventional wisdom?
Do you recall past periods when that actually hapenned?

1980

Hmmmm...that seems to be in polar opposite of conventional wisdom?
Do you recall past periods when that actually hapenned?

>polar opposite of conventional wisdom<......AFTER 7000 pts up u just noticed that about me eh......

[colion]

Hmmmm...that seems to be in polar opposite of conventional wisdom?
Do you recall past periods when that actually hapenned?

1980

Hmmmm...that seems to be in polar opposite of conventional wisdom?
Do you recall past periods when that actually hapenned?

>polar opposite of conventional wisdom<......AFTER 7000 pts up u just noticed that about me eh......

Yes, 1980ish and 2003 as well. These periods are not very long and then drop back to neutral to negative. Given the peak in 2003, the historical pattern suggests might now trend down to neutral-negative area.

[Russ]

for referrence to above chart...
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.png

Edited by Russ, 07 July 2007 - 09:24 AM.

[traderpaul]

Are you comparing the same thing,Chief?.....Gas was 25 cents a gallon.....A cup of coffe and a donut was only a quater at the coffe shop.....A phone call was a dime at the phone booth.....A house in California was $150K.....Now that same house goes for over a million.....Sharply higher rates will increase inflation.....This market will try to keep up with inflation by going up.....But the net gain is negative.(Factoring inflation).....

Edited by traderpaul, 07 July 2007 - 10:01 AM.

[johngeorge]

Are you comparing the same thing,Chief?.....Gas was 25 cents a gallon.....A cup of coffe and a donut was only a quater at the coffe shop.....A phone call was a dime at the phone booth.....A house in California was $150K.....Now that same house goes for over a million.....Sharply higher rates will increase inflation.....This market will try to keep up with inflation by going up.....But the net gain is negative.(Factoring inflation).....

Which is why I prefer commodities and PM's (including the miners) to the overall stock market. Another possible problem with higher interest rates COULD BE A HIGHER DOLLAR. In that case the large caps would suffer as many are international in scope and their earnings have been boosted for years by the lower dollar. IMO earnings, or lack thereof, are still the real drivers the stock market.

[nimblebear]

AN EXPLODING STARK MARKET......and most will be asking HOW COME.....LMAO....seen it all before.......snort

True. Thats what the guy in the paper said yesterday. Higher rates means economy is strong, therefore higher stock prices. This is comical. Lower rates equal higher stock prices too, because nobody wants bonds so they buy stocks, and using the fed model, stocks are worth more with a lower bond yield.

We've had rates go very low, and after 2003, stocks rocked. (up). Now we are getting higher rates, and stocks will go up too.

Amazing. I guess rates have nothing to do with stocks. Stocks go up regardless. What a wonderful life !

[ogm]

Hmm. there seems to be a consensus here. Higher rates = higher stocks. First of all rates may not be rising because of good economy or inflation. Simply supply and demand. US government keeps printing huge amount of supply. They even print bonds to cover interest payments on the outstanding bonds. And the demand is lagging. The foreign central banks, the biggest buyers of US debt lately, are cutting back. Nothing to do with the economy or GDP or inflation or whatever. They simply had enough of supply and don't want to buy any more of these toggle bonds. As for the how it may affect things. Lets look at this from a different point of view. Forget the housing slowdown and cutback in cashout refinancings. Though housing problems will get even worse with higher rates, and cash out refis weere huge fuel for consumer spending. Forget all that. What about LBO's and debt financed stock buybacks ? Weren't they the big driver of the stock market ? Stocks arleady pretty pricey, and LBO's start making even less sense with higher rates on debt. There are as of now about 200 bil in buyout deals that have already been announced but are yet to find financing. How does lower amount of deals affect earnings of banks and brokers ? How does it effect the premiums peoiple are paying for the "next takeover play" ? What about new debt coming to the market, will that slow down too, as companies have either refinanced at lower rates already, or would delay new issues due to higher rates ? What about CDO's issuance ? It seems to be slowing down too. according to multiple articles, there have been 500 bil in CDO's issued last year. And that slowed dow to close to nothing last month. You think all that doesn't affect earnings at least among brokers ? Or the tighter lending standards and higher rates don't affect general liquidity ? What about all the 10 to 1 leveraged hedgefunds. 1% move on rates can wipe em out, becuase they are playing with razor thin margin. Or what about those existing CDO's that pension funds, insurance companies and others have been buying last few years. The best of that stuff isn't getting a bid of 90 cents on the dollar, thats why the Ohia Ag started lawsuit against Moody's. Do you think they are itching to buy more of that stuff ? And if the loan underwriters can't unload them the loans... credit crunch ? Will that not affect banks and brokers earnings too ? Rates will affect a lot of things other then just plain obvious stuff. Yes of course there may be higher demand for stocks, but.... there will be overall much lower liquidity and that lower liquidity will effect everything.Keep in mind the supply has been pretty heavy too. There has been record 138 bil in IPO's this year already. And the pipeline is still bulging with KKr and alike. And China just doesn't run out of companies to IPO on the US market.

Edited by ogm, 07 July 2007 - 03:48 PM.