7 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

We're getting a bit overbought and sentimentrader showed a bit of a jump in bulls again, Friday.
It showed a similar jump prior to the 4th and I mentioned that last time it halted the rally.
And sure enough, Thursday was flat for the S&P with more losers than winners.
It jumped back to neutral Thursday night and the rally continued Friday.
But the overall sentiment remains fairly neutral, especially considering the new highs being made.

Last week, Mike Burk's stats were right on.
So how about this coming week?:

During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the OTC has been up 64% of the time with an average gain of 1.15%, half of that gain has been made on Monday which has never been down. Over all years the OTC has also been up 64% of the time with about half the average gain of year 3. The SPX has been modestly positive over all periods.

PS: Don't forget good ole WWW.
(And the moon is favorable for 2 weeks)

[JAP]

SPX is uptrending and only 10 points away from 1540.

Do you actually think they'll let this market fall when we're in earnings? I don't think so.

[selecto]

Well, whoever they are that do these things, they better get their buts behind some volume, pdq.



Perhaps they left the interns in town last week, to run her up on low volume. "And to what end?" you may ask.

Edited by selecto, 07 July 2007 - 12:09 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Do you actually think they'll let this market fall when we're in earnings? I don't think so.

We might see an "air pocket" drop sometime next week to pump up the bears. (www week)

they better get their buts behind some volume, pdq.

The price pattern looks a lot like July '05 as price was nearing a breakout...on low volume.
We had a bit better volume last week!
Summer volume is usually down.
Funny too, notice the past July's: '04 down, '05 up, '06 down, '07 up... so far.
Notice that if we can touch the top BB it's over 1572.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2004-06-01&i=p16672177806&a=58427056&r=9564.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 07 July 2007 - 01:15 PM.

[ogm]

The price pattern looks a lot like July '05 as price was nearing a breakout...on low volume.

July 05 was actually a peak in price, and prices dropped all the way into October.

[Rogerdodger]

Woe there cowboy. I'm only talking about next week, as we are nearing a similar breakout. We had a month of declining tops and yet SPX could not even get down to the BB median. If that trendline is broken, you will see a nice rally. Airedale has a longer term low near the last of July. If we breakout next week and sentiment shows it's not believed, we could see a week or two more of higher highs, then a pullback. If this is anywhere near as bullish as "some" think it is, that low may be a pimple on an elephant's...

Edited by Rogerdodger, 07 July 2007 - 03:38 PM.

[rkd80]

Regarding the 3rd year presidential cycle. I forgot who wrote the article, but the 3rd year cycle of a 2nd term president is actually not nearly as positive as a 1st term president. If i can dig it up - i will post it.

[ogm]

What will make the down Monday is the low number of buyouts announced. If we will get few or none buyouts, it will spook the market big time here. And the last few Mondays the trend has been for less and less deals.