Business in the trenches
#1
Posted 07 July 2007 - 07:51 PM
#2
Posted 07 July 2007 - 07:55 PM
~Benjamin Franklin~
#3
Posted 07 July 2007 - 08:14 PM
#4
Posted 07 July 2007 - 08:52 PM
Regarding McD, I think you are missing an important point about cheap fast food corps. They are doing good because they became the prime diners for those who have been living on the edge of their financial disasters.
I would give it a little more time and let the effect of the rates manifest. You may start seeing long lines for happy meals at those places, which is great for the business.
From now on, remember this example when and where ever you see a cheap alternative to an essential human need. They do good at the beginning of the stagflation.
Stagflation
Edited by xD&Cox, 07 July 2007 - 08:57 PM.
#5
Posted 07 July 2007 - 09:39 PM
#6
Posted 07 July 2007 - 11:28 PM
Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday.
Speaking of MCD, I sold it short on Friday. The chart looks exhausted and ready to roll over. Very high P/E, low growth projections, and institutions are distributing. Also with agricultural product prices on the rise their margins are about to be squeezed IMO.
Basicaly, it had a helluva run, but there isn't much left in it.
I also sold short DRI.... Consumer discretionary... one of the first things people cut back on is going out.
The stock looks weakening too.
>Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday<.......that guy is a chitty business owner......he.s gonna be gone soon.....
It all sounds like fodder to build another brick in the 'Wall of Worry'.....but....
I do flea markets and trade days around my local area. Crowds and business SUCKS !!! Nothing scientific or TA that I can add to that......'just the facts'.
flea markets....lolol.....giant garage sales.....who needs all that crap.....snort...thats why business sucks......during good times nobody buys anothers JUNK
>Stagflation.<........GEE...i never heard that word used before....is that a new one?????Nimble gave a nice real life example to what I have been calling for some time now: Stagflation.
Regarding McD, I think you are missing an important point about cheap fast food corps. They are doing good because they became the prime diners for those who have been living on the edge of their financial disasters.
I would give it a little more time and let the effect of the rates manifest. You may start seeing long lines for happy meals at those places, which is great for the business.
From now on, remember this example when and where ever you see a cheap alternative to an essential human need. They do good at the beginning of the stagflation.
Stagflation
Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday.
Speaking of MCD, I sold it short on Friday. The chart looks exhausted and ready to roll over. Very high P/E, low growth projections, and institutions are distributing. Also with agricultural product prices on the rise their margins are about to be squeezed IMO.
Basicaly, it had a helluva run, but there isn't much left in it.
I also sold short DRI.... Consumer discretionary... one of the first things people cut back on is going out.
The stock looks weakening too.
>Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday<.......that guy is a chitty business owner......he.s gonna be gone soon.....
It all sounds like fodder to build another brick in the 'Wall of Worry'.....but....
I do flea markets and trade days around my local area. Crowds and business SUCKS !!! Nothing scientific or TA that I can add to that......'just the facts'.
flea markets....lolol.....giant garage sales.....who needs all that crap.....snort...thats why business sucks......during good times nobody buys anothers JUNK
>Stagflation.<........GEE...i never heard that word used before....is that a new one?????Nimble gave a nice real life example to what I have been calling for some time now: Stagflation.
Regarding McD, I think you are missing an important point about cheap fast food corps. They are doing good because they became the prime diners for those who have been living on the edge of their financial disasters.
I would give it a little more time and let the effect of the rates manifest. You may start seeing long lines for happy meals at those places, which is great for the business.
From now on, remember this example when and where ever you see a cheap alternative to an essential human need. They do good at the beginning of the stagflation.
Stagflation
I dont know what all u geniuses are complaining about......the vast fortunes u been all making off this stock market the last 7000 thousand points u you all awta be driven benzez by now.....
Edited by da_cheif, 07 July 2007 - 11:29 PM.
#7
Posted 07 July 2007 - 11:46 PM
The big cities and bigger corporations are still doing fine, the small businesses are having cash flow and credit problems at the moment. The ISM indices are still showing expansion albeit slower and slower. The next recession in heavy manufacturing (cars etc) will not be a quick one unless the rates go lower since the people are tapped out...
The Fed inflated and the wages slowly went up, but the cost of living (benefit, energy, material costs) increased much faster. The asset rich people did very well as a result of this monetary policy, however the middle class has lost a lot of buying power.
The ones who tried to acquire assets such as homes or rental properties are now also having trouble with the rising rates. However, probably it is still not at a breaking point yet, people complain, but the businesses are still generating new jobs and people are still spending money, although some of them are doing this by running more into the negative...
It should not take a genius to figure out that the overall situation is still not getting a whole lot better, by looking at the hourly earnings which topped and employment rate which bottomed for several months now...
- kisa
#8
Posted 08 July 2007 - 09:43 AM
The big cities and bigger corporations are still doing fine, the small businesses are having cash flow and credit problems at the moment. The ISM indices are still showing expansion albeit slower and slower. The next recession in heavy manufacturing (cars etc) will not be a quick one unless the rates go lower since the people are tapped out...<.....this person musta been looking at 3 year lagging indicators...lol
http://www.abc.net.a...04/s1058123.htm
or this guy
http://www.abc.net.a...04/s1058123.htm