7 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

Most of the economic numbers have to be b.s., if you talk to any business owner within the past 6 months. Have had numerous discussions with business owners from all walks, and people I know who sell to them in the trades business, HVAC, etc. Since first of year business has been dropping steadily and substantially. Many small businesses talk about the tapped out consumer. They say this is the worst they've seen in quite awhile. Even beer distributors are getting hit hard. They say business is off a lot. People I talk to in the construction trades say that if it weren't for road construction projects many, many more would be out of work. Residential has been hit much harder than papers an press are indicating. Traffic at restaurants is even down quite a bit. McD's has had a good run, but business is off a lot there too. The employment reporst would have you believe an entirely different story. When many businesses are saying the same thing now, about the last 6 months, I think it is worth taking notice. We have had the two fastest growing counties in the US, and this is where I am hearing a lot of the bad news. You see many signs in homes. One contractor I know, who works with homeowners and businesses regularly thinks the homeowner is just plain tapped out. People have stopped running air conditioners, less vacations, fewer nights out on the town. His fellow contractors in other trades say they see the same thing. I've talked to these guys since before '03 and before stocks ran up they said business was good. That was a great sign, to get back into the market. now is the first time, I've really heard these guys complaining this much since then. Some are saying the drop has been much worse than after 2000, and 9/11. It'll be interesting to see how long before this hits mainstream media.

[U.F.O.]

I hate fundamental analysis, but I love your chickie avatar. Who is she? U.F.O.

[ogm]

Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday. Speaking of MCD, I sold it short on Friday. The chart looks exhausted and ready to roll over. Very high P/E, low growth projections, and institutions are distributing. Also with agricultural product prices on the rise their margins are about to be squeezed IMO. Basicaly, it had a helluva run, but there isn't much left in it. I also sold short DRI.... Consumer discretionary... one of the first things people cut back on is going out. The stock looks weakening too.

[A-ha]

Nimble gave a nice real life example to what I have been calling for some time now: Stagflation.

Regarding McD, I think you are missing an important point about cheap fast food corps. They are doing good because they became the prime diners for those who have been living on the edge of their financial disasters.

I would give it a little more time and let the effect of the rates manifest. You may start seeing long lines for happy meals at those places, which is great for the business.

From now on, remember this example when and where ever you see a cheap alternative to an essential human need. They do good at the beginning of the stagflation.

Stagflation

Edited by xD&Cox, 07 July 2007 - 08:57 PM.

[LongJohn]

It all sounds like fodder to build another brick in the 'Wall of Worry'.....but.... I do flea markets and trade days around my local area. Crowds and business SUCKS !!! Nothing scientific or TA that I can add to that......'just the facts'.

[da_cheif]

Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday.


Speaking of MCD, I sold it short on Friday. The chart looks exhausted and ready to roll over. Very high P/E, low growth projections, and institutions are distributing. Also with agricultural product prices on the rise their margins are about to be squeezed IMO.

Basicaly, it had a helluva run, but there isn't much left in it.


I also sold short DRI.... Consumer discretionary... one of the first things people cut back on is going out.
The stock looks weakening too.

>Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday<.......that guy is a chitty business owner......he.s gonna be gone soon.....

It all sounds like fodder to build another brick in the 'Wall of Worry'.....but....
I do flea markets and trade days around my local area. Crowds and business SUCKS !!! Nothing scientific or TA that I can add to that......'just the facts'.

flea markets....lolol.....giant garage sales.....who needs all that crap.....snort...thats why business sucks......during good times nobody buys anothers JUNK

Nimble gave a nice real life example to what I have been calling for some time now: Stagflation.

Regarding McD, I think you are missing an important point about cheap fast food corps. They are doing good because they became the prime diners for those who have been living on the edge of their financial disasters.

I would give it a little more time and let the effect of the rates manifest. You may start seeing long lines for happy meals at those places, which is great for the business.

From now on, remember this example when and where ever you see a cheap alternative to an essential human need. They do good at the beginning of the stagflation.

Stagflation

>Stagflation.<........GEE...i never heard that word used before....is that a new one?????

Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday.


Speaking of MCD, I sold it short on Friday. The chart looks exhausted and ready to roll over. Very high P/E, low growth projections, and institutions are distributing. Also with agricultural product prices on the rise their margins are about to be squeezed IMO.

Basicaly, it had a helluva run, but there isn't much left in it.


I also sold short DRI.... Consumer discretionary... one of the first things people cut back on is going out.
The stock looks weakening too.

>Just today one local business owner complained to me about the slow day he's having on Saturday<.......that guy is a chitty business owner......he.s gonna be gone soon.....

It all sounds like fodder to build another brick in the 'Wall of Worry'.....but....
I do flea markets and trade days around my local area. Crowds and business SUCKS !!! Nothing scientific or TA that I can add to that......'just the facts'.

flea markets....lolol.....giant garage sales.....who needs all that crap.....snort...thats why business sucks......during good times nobody buys anothers JUNK

Nimble gave a nice real life example to what I have been calling for some time now: Stagflation.

Regarding McD, I think you are missing an important point about cheap fast food corps. They are doing good because they became the prime diners for those who have been living on the edge of their financial disasters.

I would give it a little more time and let the effect of the rates manifest. You may start seeing long lines for happy meals at those places, which is great for the business.

From now on, remember this example when and where ever you see a cheap alternative to an essential human need. They do good at the beginning of the stagflation.

Stagflation

>Stagflation.<........GEE...i never heard that word used before....is that a new one?????

I dont know what all u geniuses are complaining about......the vast fortunes u been all making off this stock market the last 7000 thousand points u you all awta be driven benzez by now.....

Edited by da_cheif, 07 July 2007 - 11:29 PM.

[arbman]

These are all lagging indicators by at least 6 months, so these are only reference information to validate what the market was seeing about 3-6 months ago...

The big cities and bigger corporations are still doing fine, the small businesses are having cash flow and credit problems at the moment. The ISM indices are still showing expansion albeit slower and slower. The next recession in heavy manufacturing (cars etc) will not be a quick one unless the rates go lower since the people are tapped out...

The Fed inflated and the wages slowly went up, but the cost of living (benefit, energy, material costs) increased much faster. The asset rich people did very well as a result of this monetary policy, however the middle class has lost a lot of buying power.

The ones who tried to acquire assets such as homes or rental properties are now also having trouble with the rising rates. However, probably it is still not at a breaking point yet, people complain, but the businesses are still generating new jobs and people are still spending money, although some of them are doing this by running more into the negative...

It should not take a genius to figure out that the overall situation is still not getting a whole lot better, by looking at the hourly earnings which topped and employment rate which bottomed for several months now...

- kisa

[da_cheif]

>These are all lagging indicators by at least 6 months, so these are only reference information to validate what the market was seeing about 3-6 months ago...

The big cities and bigger corporations are still doing fine, the small businesses are having cash flow and credit problems at the moment. The ISM indices are still showing expansion albeit slower and slower. The next recession in heavy manufacturing (cars etc) will not be a quick one unless the rates go lower since the people are tapped out...<.....this person musta been looking at 3 year lagging indicators...lol

http://www.abc.net.a...04/s1058123.htm

or this guy

http://www.abc.net.a...04/s1058123.htm