5 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

We should see divergence at the top but I don't think we are there yet....I said about a month ago that the 30 year would visit the 04 lows...and still think we are track for that but that will be the top and the bull in equities resumes. Rates I feel will be range bound for a good some time. A break over obvious resistance points on these charts...and then we just might be putting on a bigger top with lower numbers coming on spx than I expect at this point. Remember Aug was a major low in 04....may happen again.
three charts. TNX weekly , TYX weekly and TNX daily




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[calmcookie]

Dear Mr. Lipton Gathering Thanks for the charts. By the way, what is your favorite TEA ... or why did you change your name to teaparty? Just wondering.

Edited by calmcookie, 08 July 2007 - 08:03 AM.

[eminimee]

I was Teaparty on some other boards and was being accused of stealing Eminmee's work ..so thought I better get standardized.

Teaparty started because I liked the band. . . and always thought it was a cool name....nothing more.

I'm putting live charts in here...those links don't seem to work for me...don't know what's wrong.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=W&st=1988-01-01&i=p32542482958&a=36529654&r=7872.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TYX&p=W&st=1994-01-01&i=p68674034920&a=56133968&r=729.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p06022732651&a=37616847&r=6358.png

[Douglas]

COT data supports a bottom forming soon. The Small Traders are quite short as are the Large Speculators. Market Vane and Consensus sentiment surveys are also at relatively bullish levels with quite low readings. On my charts the nicest trend line support is at about 102.5 for the long bond. If that level is reached, it should scare the sentiment numbers to very bullish low values. I keep thinking a break in the dollar will be the key.

[eminimee]

Douglas...thanks for clarifying what I meant....I meant the bottom at the 04 lows on the long bond price.....high in yield....I just read what I wrote and it was a bit confusing re: lows and highs...

[jawndissedi]

I'm glad you posted this again. I am rooting for TYX to reach 5.5% and will buy ZB there or on any overshoot. I still have some contacts in the trade and I don't remember when I've encountered so much bearish sentiment.