We should see divergence at the top but I don't think we are there yet....I said about a month ago that the 30 year would visit the 04 lows...and still think we are track for that but that will be the top and the bull in equities resumes. Rates I feel will be range bound for a good some time. A break over obvious resistance points on these charts...and then we just might be putting on a bigger top with lower numbers coming on spx than I expect at this point. Remember Aug was a major low in 04....may happen again.
three charts. TNX weekly , TYX weekly and TNX daily
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My last post on RATES
Started by
eminimee
, Jul 08 2007 06:18 AM
5 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 08 July 2007 - 06:18 AM
#2
Posted 08 July 2007 - 08:01 AM
Dear Mr. Lipton Gathering
Thanks for the charts.
By the way, what is your favorite TEA ... or why did you change your name to teaparty?
Just wondering.
Edited by calmcookie, 08 July 2007 - 08:03 AM.
#3
Posted 08 July 2007 - 08:53 AM
I was Teaparty on some other boards and was being accused of stealing Eminmee's work ..so thought I better get standardized.
Teaparty started because I liked the band. . . and always thought it was a cool name....nothing more.
I'm putting live charts in here...those links don't seem to work for me...don't know what's wrong.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=W&st=1988-01-01&i=p32542482958&a=36529654&r=7872.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TYX&p=W&st=1994-01-01&i=p68674034920&a=56133968&r=729.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p06022732651&a=37616847&r=6358.png
Teaparty started because I liked the band. . . and always thought it was a cool name....nothing more.
I'm putting live charts in here...those links don't seem to work for me...don't know what's wrong.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=W&st=1988-01-01&i=p32542482958&a=36529654&r=7872.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TYX&p=W&st=1994-01-01&i=p68674034920&a=56133968&r=729.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p06022732651&a=37616847&r=6358.png
#4
Posted 08 July 2007 - 09:05 AM
COT data supports a bottom forming soon. The Small Traders are quite short as are the Large Speculators. Market Vane and Consensus sentiment surveys are also at relatively bullish levels with quite low readings. On my charts the nicest trend line support is at about 102.5 for the long bond. If that level is reached, it should scare the sentiment numbers to very bullish low values. I keep thinking a break in the dollar will be the key.
#5
Posted 08 July 2007 - 09:49 AM
Douglas...thanks for clarifying what I meant....I meant the bottom at the 04 lows on the long bond price.....high in yield....I just read what I wrote and it was a bit confusing re: lows and highs...
#6
Posted 08 July 2007 - 10:52 PM
I'm glad you posted this again. I am rooting for TYX to reach 5.5% and will buy ZB there or on any overshoot. I still have some contacts in the trade and I don't remember when I've encountered so much bearish sentiment.
Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.