8 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

Alcoa Inc said on Monday that second-quarter profit was down.
http://www.thestreet...s...E&cm_ite=NA

Edited by redfoliage2, 09 July 2007 - 03:25 PM.

[relax]

i'm afraid it's bear bait - but yields should stop markets from going to crazy the next days,

Alcoa Inc said on Monday that second-quarter profit was down.
http://www.thestreet...s...E&cm_ite=NA

[rkd80]

i dont think earnings can be bait, their reaction can be. that being said - AA almost always dissapoints, so i doubt this is a huge shock to anyone.

[ogm]

Bloomberg , CNBC, every show I watch, every article I read go on and on and on how much earnings are underestimated and how they will be much better then expected. Expectations for earnings are HUGE. Thats why "dissapointing" will be the theme of this earnings season. Expectations are much higher then actual estimates. So it doesn't really matter if the companies will beat them. Buy the rumor........

Edited by ogm, 09 July 2007 - 04:52 PM.

[rkd80]

They were saying that last time too and a lot of companies guided higher and beat estimates. With higher guidance the companies are setting themselves up for dissapointment. Although the major difference is that most timers stated that last earnings will bring the market down, this time most are suggesting that earnings will boost this market. go figre.

[arbman]

Many of them beat the lowered estimates last Q and did not guide up for the second half, I don't think there is all that much excitement actually. The market will probably do the irrational and try to march higher at some point before coming crashing down. Look at this picture, the rates are higher, the implied risk by the credit spreads are higher, the liquidity (growth rate) is less, the implied volatilities are higher and people still rather speculate on call options and the market is trying to advance on vapor volume. I almost feel like many are short the underlying and they are only protecting their positions, kind of explains the record short interest... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 09 July 2007 - 05:21 PM.

[thespookyone]

Considering the devalued US dollar, they had an easy shot at smoking the estimate-this report is worse than it seems at face value.

[arbman]

Considering the devalued US dollar, they had an easy shot at smoking the estimate-this report is worse than it seems at face value.

So true, have you been also seeing the same that the USD would go down just ahead of the earnings season for 4 Q in a row now and just wiggle in between?!? or is it just another bear paranoia?

[thespookyone]

kisacik-Yes, I have noticed, must be a 4 times in a row coincidence. It will be interesting to see how many US corporations doing large amounts of business overseas, that have this same opportunity, also miss the mark. I suppose one could be called "paranoid" for distrusting the govenments inflation measures (while actual prices skyrocket) as well.