7 replies to this topic

[rkd80]

I forgot who it was, but someone posted a chart of July trading days. First 6 days are all green and so far that has been true. 7th and 8th are down. 9th is up huge, that will be the 13th of july. (12 day Nasdaq rally ends that day too) OPEX week starts choppy and heads down with expiration Friday being the worst day of July. This is since 1950. July Almanac does not coincide with this data exactly and suggests that all of this week is bullish, but agrees that expiration Friday is typically negative.

[OEXCHAOS]

It's important to note that "up huge" means that a large majority of the days were up, historically, not that there's a particular likelihood of big gains. Next week is typically pretty negative, which, of course throws a monkey wrench into the standard WWW play. Mark

[A-ha]

Last month, S&P bottomed in opex week on Wednesday (6/13) , not the Wednesday before the opex week. S&P rallied 47 points from Wed morning to Friday's high in 3 days. That was a 7 day shift from WWW. I wouldnt be surprised to see another right side shift next week. (Market sells off into the Friday)

Edited by xD&Cox, 09 July 2007 - 06:22 PM.

[rkd80]

what IS the typical WWW play anyway?

Last month, S&P bottomed in opex week on Wednesday (6/13) , not the Wednesday before the opex week.

S&P rallied 47 points from Wed morning to Friday's high in 3 days.

That was a 7 day shift from WWW. I wouldnt be surprised to see another right side shift next week.

(Market sells off into the Friday)

[selecto]

[rkd80]

Mark,

Yes - very good point. Over 50 years that is the best performing July day and Friday opex is the worst performing, which of course does not mean that they cannot finish down and up respectively. Just a matter of probabilities.

None of this stuff can be used trade off independently anyway, just thought I would throw it out there.

It's important to note that "up huge" means that a large majority of the days were up, historically, not that there's a particular likelihood of big gains.

Next week is typically pretty negative, which, of course throws a monkey wrench into the standard WWW play.

Mark

[OEXCHAOS]

Yeah, it's deceptive. Generally, now is a good time to back away from longs unless it's a real value *which I like to look for during the summer), and look to bias long again in October. The little wiggles and waggles are trick otherwise. There's a pattern, but I'm not sure it's so easily tradable. Others may disagree. My work says lower but not easily so. We're short and up but not happy. Mark

[rkd80]

Ay, although one can argue that this not a typical summer either, making the job of scouting out longs even more difficult.

I am short, down and even less happy. I am looking to cover on any kind of pullback really.

Yeah, it's deceptive.

Generally, now is a good time to back away from longs unless it's a real value *which I like to look for during the summer), and look to bias long again in October.

The little wiggles and waggles are trick otherwise. There's a pattern, but I'm not sure it's so easily tradable.

Others may disagree. My work says lower but not easily so. We're short and up but not happy.

Mark