11 replies to this topic

[Tor]

1980 and 1520 as we speak. it wont take much for momo to gather to the downside if it is coming of course. stops in at 1530 and 2000. all cash prices. good trading. still overall v bullish, so this is a st trade.

[da_cheif]

1980 and 1520 as we speak. it wont take much for momo to gather to the downside if it is coming of course.

stops in at 1530 and 2000. all cash prices.

good trading.

still overall v bullish, so this is a st trade.

thats dangerous imo.....puts u in a bad postion......unless of course......

[Tor]

right here i am long gold stocks and short indices. i see little risk here on the short side in indices IMO. will see of course. Have just added some more QID. stop i when the ndx hits 2000 (ndx 100 that is). cash price. wont take much to get momo to the downside, so i know my exxits in both time and price right here. that is why i am doing it.

[NAV]

Tor, We are approaching the 10-10:30 CIT and we are VST oversold. Typically this resolves in a bounce. The payoff is generally better shorting that bounce. Again, i don't know the timeframe of your trade, so it's not appropriate for me to comment here. I do this VST stuff for a living and coudn't control my urge not making that observation. Good luck with your trade !

[jjc]

Tor,

We are approaching the 10-10:30 CIT and we are VST oversold. Typically this resolves in a bounce. The payoff is generally better shorting that bounce. Again, i don't know the timeframe of your trade, so it's not appropriate for me to comment here. I do this VST stuff for a living and coudn't control my urge not making that observation. Good luck with your trade !

Gotta strongly agree with NAV here; 10:00 was a time to lighten up on short. 11:00 or so if trend does
not reverse (reversing is not likely at this point given the degree) will offer another short. Typical Tuesday trend profile.

[Tor]

the lows do need to break i admit. 1518 spx cash.

[rkd80]

yeah, second that - nav is right. speaking of which, nav - do you have any way of measuring wether a v-bottom has a certain chance of getting retested during the same day? i am looking at a 30 min chart. jjc can you explain more of the typical tuesday profile?

[NAV]

yeah, second that - nav is right.

speaking of which, nav - do you have any way of measuring wether a v-bottom has a certain chance of getting retested during the same day? i am looking at a 30 min chart.

jjc can you explain more of the typical tuesday profile?

rkd80,

There is still a high potential for a retest of morning lows. Watch the 30-min CCI. If it busts above the zero line decisively, forget about the retest.

[rkd80]

i love CCI, do you use the 20 cci or something else/

[jjc]

yeah, second that - nav is right.

speaking of which, nav - do you have any way of measuring wether a v-bottom has a certain chance of getting retested during the same day? i am looking at a 30 min chart.

jjc can you explain more of the typical tuesday profile?

Sure, statistically speaking: Typically Trend days will have a counter move (bounce) 1 hour to 1.5 hours into
play. Days of the week have there own (statistically significant) time for a low (or high, suprizingly symetrical). Tuesday's bounce peak occurs typically around 11:00, and is unlike any other day of the week
(statistically speaking).

Normally such a large move in the overnight/morning will guarantee a trend day; however ATR is high these days with the increase in volatility and the size of the move in relative terms is marginal. In short I'm waiting on the markets response to Ben's words.

I might add here the purge down distance as it stands now is not un-characteristic of a shake out of weak handed longs.


I might add here that I don't think the trading competition comes from other traders during these days;
it is the institutions and I don't think sharing information hurts any edge I may have.