5 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I found it. It was part of a thread that had some inappropriate comments and inadvertently it got moved along with them. I never saw it.

Here it is:

Greenie sez:
Well folks, all my trades are posted real time in the technicalwatch board. Most of them are shorts initiated late March, and, almost all are in the money, even though the headline indices rallied big time. HOV short was up big, and I took profit (posted real time in TW). Still holding BZH short, also up big. The biggest position is in SRS long (inverse REIT), and, yes, it is up huge (>13%) from where I initiated the position. It went up 22%, but came back. I am going to be in it for long term (>9 months) and will update, when I close the position. There are some losers, but overall I have no complaints.

I like to play one side of the market because of other constraints - don't get to watch tickers minute by minute, or sometimes for days. We get paid to do productive work that builds this society, and not play an unproductive zero-sum game. So, I can only choose positions, assets and directions I am comfortable with, and can go away from them for weeks. I do lot of research on companies in my free time, and good feel about certain stocks that I play. I know all the home-builder stocks and companies by heart, and most of the REIT stocks and companies by heart + plus know the fundamentals of many companies very well. I warned my friends some time before the Bear Stearns scandal broke out - just check my comments in xD's blog for example. No insider information - I just watched how the agents were behaving, and sensed what was coming.

Hi JohnG, yes I have the TLT positions. Most of the positions were initiated last April-May, when our resident expert was shouting about crash. I added smaller fraction this January, but those are in the red. BTW, do not forget that they pay nice dividends every month, which all add up.

Dennis, you are still possibly young and have not seen much of the world. When you get older and more experienced in life, you will learn that valuable information comes from completely unexpected places - just got to keep an open mind about others. There is more than one way to fleece this market.

[greenie]

Thanks Mark. One small update - SRS (my largest position) is up another 3% today, which translates into another to my initial position

[OEXCHAOS]

Thanks Mark. One small update - SRS (my largest position) is up another 3% today, which translates into another to my initial position

Sorry it took me an hour to make visible. Lunch and errands.

M

[johngeorge]

Hi JohnG, yes I have the TLT positions. Most of the positions were initiated last April-May, when our resident expert was shouting about crash. I added smaller fraction this January, but those are in the red. BTW, do not forget that they pay nice dividends every month, which all add up.

Hi Greenie
Thank you for that update. You have a great mind and I have always enjoyed your comments and market opinions. I will have to look more closely for your postings at both Technical Watch and xD's blog as I usually go to those weekly.
Best to you

[greenie]

Hi JohnG,

This is my IYR post that explained in detail why we went short. The positions were opened a month before, based on Fib's 'sign of the bear' analysis, and other factors discussed here.


http://www.websiteto...post?id=1893872


TLT most likely have bottomed, because we heard another crash call from the resident genius. In any case, I still expect interest rate to go down to 2%. This is the deflationary phase of K-cycle winter. 1982-2000 was the disinflationary phase. In the deflationary phase, bonds rise, stocks fall and gold rises. Fall in dollar over last 5 years masked the real trend.

[johngeorge]

Hi JohnG,

This is my IYR post that explained in detail why we went short. The positions were opened a month before, based on Fib's 'sign of the bear' analysis, and other factors discussed here.


http://www.websiteto...post?id=1893872


TLT most likely have bottomed, because we heard another crash call from the resident genius. In any case, I still expect interest rate to go down to 2%. This is the deflationary phase of K-cycle winter. 1982-2000 was the disinflationary phase. In the deflationary phase, bonds rise, stocks fall and gold rises. Fall in dollar over last 5 years masked the real trend.

greenie
Thanks for the info. Read the thread and, IMO, you have a very sound fundamental and good long term technical case for your investments. Will be looking at SRS this weekend as a very long term addition to my portfolio. TLT is another story, but, if the scenario you laid out comes close to fruition it would be a great long term investment. You got me interested.
Best to you.