10 replies to this topic

[rkd80]

I find these situations often difficult. Trying to nimbly move in and out of the market one can easily miss a sizeable move. A few reliable ST indicators are suggesting that we bounce, but almost all dailies are suggesting that this is just a start of something. I screw these crucial moments up so often that I am wondering how some of your swing traders are planning to handle this and why? My gut is telling me to cover all shorts on any down opening, but then reshort the rally as the broken 60min trend gets back-tested. But...messed up before and now with Denleo issuing a correction possibility, covering does not seem such a rosy prospect.

[ogm]

I find these situations often difficult. Trying to nimbly move in and out of the market one can easily miss a sizeable move.

A few reliable ST indicators are suggesting that we bounce, but almost all dailies are suggesting that this is just a start of something. I screw these crucial moments up so often that I am wondering how some of your swing traders are planning to handle this and why?

My gut is telling me to cover all shorts on any down opening, but then reshort the rally as the broken 60min trend gets back-tested. But...messed up before and now with Denleo issuing a correction possibility, covering does not seem such a rosy prospect.

30-60 min oversold.

Daily has 3 lower peaks, and a lot of weakness in all momentum readings.

Weekly are just starting to roll over.

If this is serious, then we'll sell right though the ST oversold readings, as the longer term trends take over.

I agree with Denleo, this is some of the best setups I've seen in a while on my indicators too. I'm going to take the risk and not cover anything for now. Besides, my Cleantech long portfolio isn't doing too bad, and is balancing my financial/consumer related shorts out. I'll be adding Cleantech stuff into weakness.

Edited by ogm, 10 July 2007 - 08:05 PM.

[Jnavin]

Don't trade if it doesn't feel right. Before the session begins, decide what levels you'll buy or sell in the first 90 minutes. Know what your stop loss is and know what your target is. If the levels aren't reached, don't trade.

[rkd80]

the fear is losing profit on shorts like so many previous times. i'd prefer a green open and then reversal mid-day that is easier than move down and reverse at some random point

Don't trade if it doesn't feel right.
Before the session begins, decide what levels you'll buy or sell in the first 90 minutes.
Know what your stop loss is and know what your target is.
If the levels aren't reached, don't trade.

[arbman]

rk, if I were you I would hope for a huge gap down and then an irrecoverable initial sell off. I also hope the opposite when I am long, it is seals it, like it did today...

[rkd80]

rk, if I were you I would hope for a huge gap down and then an irrecoverable initial sell off. I also hope the opposite when I am long, it is seals it, like it did today...

kisa, really? a scenario like that would make us extremely over-sold and place us into a side-ways pattern for a while. hope is not something i am relying on anyway.

i just want to be able to handle all 3 senarios. gap up, gap down and flat open.

[NAV]

rkd80, If you fear a gap-up, you should have already covered. If it gaps-down, then cover and reshort the bounce, cuz two gap-down and go days are extremely rare. If it's flat, establish a level where you want to cover. Anyway, all my above suggestions are moot, if you are swing trading. If you are a swing trader, then all these intraday fluctuations should be of no consequence to you, unless seeing those potential gains eaten up by intraday swings bother you too much. Then it means you don't have a stomach for swingtrading and you should be daytrading. There's nothing wrong getting cute with every intraday swing, as long as missing the large moves does not bother you. Otherwise, it's only contradiction in terms, which cannot be resolved. Sitting tight is a rare art. It's not rare only when folks are wrong . I can't. That's why i daytrade.

Edited by NAV, 10 July 2007 - 10:08 PM.

[rkd80]

Nav,

Good post, thanks for replying. I definitely prefer to swing trade and do not have the fortitude or patience for day trading. I DT on a very limited basis.

To answer your question, I would normally not be bothered by tomorrow's morning, but I am being influenced by a lot of what I am hearing and have had a lot of previous short positions consumed by sharp reversal rallies. Eventually you begin to react, how many times can one give up profits - right?

I actually covered a good portion so I am not hoping/fearing any kind of open, just going w.the flow. I only have one real fear, missing the move to SPX 1450-1430. Its a move I expect to happen soon and I want to be there from start to finish - but not get caught up in another reversal, hence the post showing how uncertain and vulnerable I am :-/

rkd80,

If you fear a gap-up, you should have already covered. If it gaps-down, then cover and reshort the bounce, cuz two gap-down and go days are extremely rare. If it's flat, establish a level where you want to cover.

Anyway, all my above suggestions are moot, if you are swing trading. If you are a swing trader, then all these intraday fluctuations should be of no consequence to you, unless seeing those potential gains eaten up by intraday swings bother you too much. Then it means you don't have a stomach for swingtrading and you should be daytrading. There's nothing wrong getting cute with every intraday swing, as long as missing the large moves does not bother you. Otherwise, it's only contradiction in terms, which cannot be resolved.

[NAV]

Nav,

Good post, thanks for replying. I definitely prefer to swing trade and do not have the fortitude or patience for day trading. I DT on a very limited basis.

To answer your question, I would normally not be bothered by tomorrow's morning, but I am being influenced by a lot of what I am hearing and have had a lot of previous short positions consumed by sharp reversal rallies. Eventually you begin to react, how many times can one give up profits - right?

I actually covered a good portion so I am not hoping/fearing any kind of open, just going w.the flow. I only have one real fear, missing the move to SPX 1450-1430. Its a move I expect to happen soon and I want to be there from start to finish - but not get caught up in another reversal, hence the post showing how uncertain and vulnerable I am :-/

rkd80,

If you fear a gap-up, you should have already covered. If it gaps-down, then cover and reshort the bounce, cuz two gap-down and go days are extremely rare. If it's flat, establish a level where you want to cover.

Anyway, all my above suggestions are moot, if you are swing trading. If you are a swing trader, then all these intraday fluctuations should be of no consequence to you, unless seeing those potential gains eaten up by intraday swings bother you too much. Then it means you don't have a stomach for swingtrading and you should be daytrading. There's nothing wrong getting cute with every intraday swing, as long as missing the large moves does not bother you. Otherwise, it's only contradiction in terms, which cannot be resolved.

rkd80,

I hear you. Been there, done it, been bitten many times. It's a very difficult game swing trading the S&P because of the deep retracements. Remember there are pros who want these deep retracements to get better entries, while scaring the living daylights out of the retailers. The only solution i have found to this is to ignore that knot in the stomach or take partial profits (that's what i do) and add back that partial position on retracements.

[rkd80]

Difficult indeed, I am at a point where I know enough to know that I dont know anything :-/
I am also having info overload most of the time and it prevents clear decision making, someone - maybe ogm - got it right, simplicity is often best.

I think you hit the nail on the head though about pros wanting deeper retracement for their own positioning. Commercials increased net long by almost 2% last week - so you gotta figure that they are up to something with this seemingly technically perfect sell-off.

Nav,

Good post, thanks for replying. I definitely prefer to swing trade and do not have the fortitude or patience for day trading. I DT on a very limited basis.

To answer your question, I would normally not be bothered by tomorrow's morning, but I am being influenced by a lot of what I am hearing and have had a lot of previous short positions consumed by sharp reversal rallies. Eventually you begin to react, how many times can one give up profits - right?

I actually covered a good portion so I am not hoping/fearing any kind of open, just going w.the flow. I only have one real fear, missing the move to SPX 1450-1430. Its a move I expect to happen soon and I want to be there from start to finish - but not get caught up in another reversal, hence the post showing how uncertain and vulnerable I am :-/

rkd80,

If you fear a gap-up, you should have already covered. If it gaps-down, then cover and reshort the bounce, cuz two gap-down and go days are extremely rare. If it's flat, establish a level where you want to cover.

Anyway, all my above suggestions are moot, if you are swing trading. If you are a swing trader, then all these intraday fluctuations should be of no consequence to you, unless seeing those potential gains eaten up by intraday swings bother you too much. Then it means you don't have a stomach for swingtrading and you should be daytrading. There's nothing wrong getting cute with every intraday swing, as long as missing the large moves does not bother you. Otherwise, it's only contradiction in terms, which cannot be resolved.

rkd80,

I hear you. Been there, done it, been bitten many times. It's a very difficult game swing trading the S&P because of the deep retracements. Remember there are pros who want these deep retracements to get better entries, while scaring the living daylights out of the retailers. The only solution i have found to this is to ignore that knot in the stomach or take partial profits (that's what i do) and add back that partial position on retracements.