17 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

I had forecast, this would be a light volume wonder, and it has been. Yes, an upthrust/short squeeze on light volume tends to feed on itself... but in no way is this a bullish event. We could go all the way and test the monthly high volume high now from 1/2001 (2892), but no way on this volume is that a bullish event.



As you can see from the chart below, the texture of this market changed dramatically on 6/22. Fortunately for me, my methodology picked it up and I was able to confidently forecast we'd break the Nasdaq and SPX highs... Now I'm sending another message... the volume spike low you see on 6/22 will be tested. We could run as high as the all time monthly volume high of 2892 from 1/2001. I can tell you today though, mid-month if that happens it is the short of the century, based on these volume patterns...



If you've read my posts, you know that I saw this coming.... Now I'm telling you to WATCH OUT. This pig is ready for slaughter.... we don't know which day, but we know where it's going when it falls off the yellow brick road to nowhere on light volume... It's a long way down to 2583.

[rkd80]

Hmm, i am confused. So you are saying that thhe low volume spike will be tested EVENTUALLY, but we may go parabolic before that? Does not that speak for itself...eventually markets come down, so eventually we can visit all sorts of levels.

Or are you saying that the 6/22 mark will be tested sooner than later?

I had forecast, this would be a light volume wonder, and it has been. Yes, an upthrust/short squeeze on light volume tends to feed on itself... but in no way is this a bullish event. We could go all the way and test the monthly high volume high now from 1/2001 (2892), but no way on this volume is that a bullish event.



As you can see from the chart below, the texture of this market changed dramatically on 6/22. Fortunately for me, my methodology picked it up and I was able to confidently forecast we'd break the Nasdaq and SPX highs... Now I'm sending another message... the volume spike low you see on 6/22 will be tested. We could run as high as the all time monthly volume high of 2892 from 1/2001. I can tell you today though, mid-month if that happens it is the short of the century, based on these volume patterns...



If you've read my posts, you know that I saw this coming.... Now I'm telling you to WATCH OUT. This pig is ready for slaughter.... we don't know which day, but we know where it's going when it falls off the yellow brick road to nowhere on light volume... It's a long way down to 2583.

[swanstkdh]

Where would you go into QID. It just keeps dropping like a rock. Tried short a few times and stopped out right away.

[eminimee]

Semi..you've been brilliant and can see that possibility with my work on SPX...not volume related though.

....The count is very bullish that I have on spx if we are topping or have topped a wave 1 of an ending diagonal that would target the 1590/1600 area on internal technical fumes....I can't rule that out at the moment ......HOWEVER.....if we hit 1561.80 SPX BEFORE a decent pull back to the 1533/39 area...............that would be a HUGE warning to me that 1530 is going to fail to act as support and we have put in a substantial top with a bull trap having been sprung. Coming down to that 1533/39 area and holding before we hit 1561.80 keeps those higher targets alive.

I do have other technical reasons for the rally possibly failing at that 1561.80 number but it's my own odd ball stuff that would confuse if I explained it all..plus some of it I would prefer to keep to myself....... I will say though....TRAN is a chart that bugs me..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p72820422618&a=34410261&r=7837.png

[thespookyone]

Semi and Teaparty: You've both been brilliant in seeing this rise. Love watching semi's on spot volume work, and Teapartys' charts have been practially a perfect roadmap (that I think I believed in first here, and WOW has it helped my "driving", lol). Although I don't believe in plunging, I am somewhat of a "gunslinger" type trader, looking for larger moves with defined lower risks. I prefer to enter and exit quickly-as that is the biggest protection from risk I know. That said, I don't get in on some moves, because the entry doesn't look "juicy" enough to me. Also, I trade a lot of puts and calls, and when the IV gets like it has been lately, I hate to pay the premium. I mention all this only because of Semi and Teapartys takes-and my own as well. The juncture we are at is an opportunity for some nice cash-EITHER way. I need only be patient, and wait for the market to tell me what to do. IMHO, Teapartys' 1561.80 has a lot of meaning-since my main trading basis is simplicity and probabilities. Should we drop down before the number, base, then go up through the neckline-the odds of the pattern failing after going through the neckline up are tiny-and present me with 30 or 40 SPX points as the reward-possibly more with a blowoff top. Should we go straight to the neckline and fail, the odds are pretty fair for a throwback-in which case about 50 SPX points plus are on the table to the downside-plus whatever exagerations may occur there(not to exlude the start of a meaningfull correction). So, I'll keep my trading very simple here and practice patience, something that took me ten years of trading to learn, and has been invaluable ever since. Ewave count seems vital here, and not being as good as Teaparty, I'll have to let price levels and wave structure define it for me. One last comment here, a simple observation from a simple trader-while the possibility of an ED 5 on SPX remains high, in my opinion it has yet to be defined enough to trade(for myself, that is, of course), and the other simple possibility-that we have completed a 5 without an ED coming looms ominously. Spooky

Edited by thespookyone, 14 July 2007 - 09:58 AM.

[SemiBizz]

Bear Bait or Candy... you decide.. see important chart.



Going Without the Flow: The Changing Dynamics of this Bull Market

[SemiBizz]

Where would you go into QID. It just keeps dropping like a rock. Tried short a few times and stopped out right away.

Next entry is Nasdaq 2722 if we crack it on this leg up...

[swanstkdh]

Thanks you are one of the best here. I love reading your stuff. That bird in the picture says it all for me.

[SemiBizz]

In my weekend web review, I also found this:



McLaren Report

How the NASDAQ performs the next week may give the clue for the entire index. You can see how the index struggled upward for May and June then resolved that struggle with this fast trend up. This is a recognizable pattern of trending and is always resolved with an exhaustion trend that ends the trend. During an exhaustion trend the index hould not correct more than 3 or 4 days or the trend will be complete. The 100 should stay out of the congestion it just broke away from or it will indicate a possible completion. Seeing the more speculative NASDAQ diverge from the S&P 500 could be indicating a little burst of speculation prior to a more serious move down in the averages. I've laid out the criteria for this index to hold this fast trend and if it doesn't meet that criteria it could have ramifications for all the stock indexes.

Edited by SemiBizz, 15 July 2007 - 11:22 AM.

[relax]

mclaren is great but is not as certain now as he was before

must not correct more than 3 or 4 days - in a row? or just 3 or 4 negative days at any point since the start of the trend

In my weekend web review, I also found this:



McLaren Report

How the NASDAQ performs the next week may give the clue for the entire index. You can see how the index struggled upward for May and June then resolved that struggle with this fast trend up. This is a recognizable pattern of trending and is always resolved with an exhaustion trend that ends the trend. During an exhaustion trend the index hould not correct more than 3 or 4 days or the trend will be complete. The 100 should stay out of the congestion it just broke away from or it will indicate a possible completion. Seeing the more speculative NASDAQ diverge from the S&P 500 could be indicating a little burst of speculation prior to a more serious move down in the averages. I've laid out the criteria for this index to hold this fast trend and if it doesn't meet that criteria it could have ramifications for all the stock indexes.