9 replies to this topic

[relax]

http://www.bullandbe...calculation.asp

Extreme values are always interesting

[Russ]

http://www.bullandbe...istoryChart.asp

Based on its history, look back to late 2002, this indicates market is in a big buy area now.

[relax]

doesn't it show the exact opposite

february sell off happened from a high value, just as was the case before the sell off in may 2006

http://www.bullandbe...istoryChart.asp

Based on its history, look back to late 2002, this indicates market is in a big buy area now.

[relax]

just looked at it again - it is somewhat difficult to see the exact dates

maybe february sell of happened at a low bullbear level, then we would now be at a huge sell area

doesn't it show the exact opposite

february sell off happened from a high value, just as was the case before the sell off in may 2006

http://www.bullandbe...istoryChart.asp

Based on its history, look back to late 2002, this indicates market is in a big buy area now.

[arbman]

I would think closer to a major bottom than a top...



Thanks for the info...

- kisa

[relax]

Thanks too!

bottoms and tops have several times come with a minor delay after the bullbear top/bottom

maybe end of july we bottom

I would think closer to a major bottom than a top...



Thanks for the info...

- kisa

Edited by relax_dk, 15 July 2007 - 02:12 PM.

[arbman]

I am thinking next week should be up after a pull back tomorrow or Tuesday. I am thinking the current divergence in between the new highs vs the new lows will be settled quickly next week with a pull back. On Friday, even though the indices drifted higher, the breath was poor and the new highs vs divergent from the day before on Nasdaq. The breath hasn't been bad from the lows though, but the cummulative breath is not quite leading, actually it might not be of great help other than the initiations since the rates are going higher and the small and mid cap companies might not keep up very long, I think it will be mostly large cap rallies. It looks like there is a very good rally coming for August... ... or this rally will get insane from here for several weeks with the deteriorating internals to top sometime in August... ... The mark up time...

Edited by kisacik, 15 July 2007 - 02:22 PM.

[selecto]

[relax]

also worth keeping an eye on the german DAX - in same situation as sp 500 - it actually made a new high but hasn't really confirmed a move up

as always cpi and ppi date will be key

since 2006 new highs have been made in the month to follow, if core inflation has been .2 or lower

if higher than .2 the month to follow has been down

a simple rule which has worked great
with regards to the chart - it is not so clear what it is telling us - in february the bottom in bearbull was followed by a move down

I am thinking next week should be up after a pull back tomorrow or Tuesday. I am thinking the current divergence in between the new highs vs the new lows will be settled quickly next week with a pull back. On Friday, even though the indices drifted higher, the breath was poor and the new highs vs divergent from the day before on Nasdaq. The breath hasn't been bad from the lows though, but the cummulative breath is not quite leading, actually it might not be of great help other than the initiations since the rates are going higher and the small and mid cap companies might not keep up very long, I think it will be mostly large cap rallies. It looks like there is a very good rally coming for August...

... or this rally will get insane from here for several weeks with the deteriorating internals to top sometime in August...

... The mark up time...

Edited by relax_dk, 15 July 2007 - 02:39 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Man, I looked at that measure and I can't tell exactly what it represents. I've always felt that an indicator ought to quickly tell us something about the market. This thing tells us almost everything about the market, and thus it almost tells us nothing. At least me. Too much info. Not enough history. I'm thinking that it's measuring inflationary issues and probably can go to greater extremes than it has seen in the past 5 years. Mark