11 replies to this topic

[LarryT]

Link to a weekly chart since the 2000 top and a daily chart displaying the waves from the March 2007 low.

http://marketcharts....ad.com/WAV.html

This weekly chart from the 2000 all time high to present displays an Elliott wave “AB” top. This is a bear market formation due to the waves overlapping from the high in 2004 to the low in 2006. The key to unlock this formation is where will the final wave “C” top? The wave up from the March 2007 low is that key. On this chart I have displayed a regression channel from the 2004 high to the March 2007 low. The upper limit is four standard deviations from the regression line and we see the last week of May and all of June has stalled at this limit.

The daily chart is a zoomed in daily look at the final wave up on the weekly wave chart. My analysis has been the wave up from October 2002 is an “AB” SUPER CYCLE new high bear market top. This wave up from June 2006 hit the .786 extension from the March low Friday. The wave up from the 1506 "E" wave low 4.25 extension targets 1563, the widest leg of the triangle added to the "E" wave low targets 1562. The odds are this 1550-1560 zone is the final top for our markets. That is and has been my wave analysis. If the decline I am expecting from 1560s does not take out 1484 before September then I must rethink the waves from October 2002 low.

Best,
Larry T

Edited by LarryT, 15 July 2007 - 05:16 PM.

[But Daddy]

Do I remember correctly a SPX target of 300 ish or lower about 4 years ago? Not sure where you have been the last couple of years, but it looks like your company name changed. Can you bring us up to speed on what has been going on w/ your stuff? Thanks

[LarryT]

Do I remember correctly a SPX target of 300 ish or lower about 4 years ago? Not sure where you have been the last couple of years, but it looks like your company name changed. Can you bring us up to speed on what has been going on w/ your stuff? Thanks

Four years ago, yeah I was looking for a bounce from the 700s then lower stayed bearish until May of 2004 even though my LTM model said be long in April 2003. Got the August 2004 low and expected the bear bounce to top at 1336 in May 2006. My logic for that comes from the 235 new moon Metonic cycle. That analysis was working to perfection until August 2006. My methods missed the rally from the 2006 low to the February high completely. That 235 new moon cycle on average sees the top 14 new moons previous to the 235th new moon since the July 13th 1988 cycle completed. Last night was the 235th new moon since July 13, 1988 and my stuff says this is the end of the bear bounce from 2002 so we will soon find out.

Name is still Market Charts still partners with Market Turns, nothing new there. Been a couple years since posting on FF. Started with this board when AOL was a DOS program. Whew, that was a long time ago.

Best,
Larry T

[But Daddy]

Thanks. You and Jim have some good stuff. Good luck.

[PorkLoin]

LT,

Hey Dude! Good to hear from you again. Vacationing this summer I am, currently in Nova Scotia with some of the guys I used to run with.

Best,

Doug

[LarryT]

LT,

Hey Dude! Good to hear from you again. Vacationing this summer I am, currently in Nova Scotia with some of the guys I used to run with.

Best,

Doug

Hello Doug, long time since I heard from the ole Porker d:^)

[OEXCHAOS]

Larry! Good to see you on the board. Folks, LT is one of the OLD timers. They used to call him "spooky" on the AOL Fearless Forecaster board. Back then, my computer may have been a $3500 386. Larry, I hope to see more of your stuff here. Mark

[rkd80]

Why did they call him spooky? He was so good it was scary?

[OEXCHAOS]

yup...

[rkd80]

yup...

wow, that is a hell of a title...I guess I will keep his count in mind if his track record is that impressive.