10 replies to this topic

[NAV]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...s-update-1.html

[pisces]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...s-update-1.html

HI,NAV...



Thanks for your posts.......as a born pessimist and former permabear,[now reborn and converted to a

trader,neither BULL nor BEAR,,,],I appreciate posts like yours to help me stay on the right track...



THANKS AGAIN. and the BEST OF LUCK to you.

Pisces.

[NAV]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...s-update-1.html

HI,NAV...



Thanks for your posts.......as a born pessimist and former permabear,[now reborn and converted to a

trader,neither BULL nor BEAR,,,],I appreciate posts like yours to help me stay on the right track...



THANKS AGAIN. and the BEST OF LUCK to you.

Pisces.

Pices,

I am glad you are out of that trap. Been there, been both a perma bear and a perma bull. Would never want to be in that psychological state ever again. It's a delusional state. Once a perma and the market goes against you, it's hard to return back to normalcy. Cuz, then vindication and pride becomes a overriding concern and making money or losing money becomes irrelevant. It's that darn vindication that you are after, that mission of proving that the market is wrong, you are after..... You start associating with like minded permas, start reading perma gurus newsletters, filter out news stuff/opinions on the web which suits your perma opinion, and lead a delusional life. I would never want to be back in that perma state (bull or bear) ever again !

Good luck to you as well.

Edited by NAV, 16 July 2007 - 05:58 AM.

[redfoliage2]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...s-update-1.html

I don't think anyone in this world really knows what stock market will be 3 years later though it's possible to predict a shorter term

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 July 2007 - 07:25 AM.

[NAV]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...s-update-1.html

I don't think anyone in this world really knows what stock market will be 3 years later though it's possible to predict a shorter term

Ok, can you predict where SPX will be 3 days from now, if you think ST is predictable.

The margin of error in Percentage terms will be the same whether it's long or short term.

Edited by NAV, 16 July 2007 - 07:36 AM.

[redfoliage2]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...s-update-1.html

I don't think anyone in this world really knows what stock market will be 3 years later though it's possible to predict a shorter term

Ok, can you predict what it will be 3 days from now, if you think ST is predictable.

Different TAs predict short terms with various accuracy. It also depends on the degree of manipulations in a particular time period. Like in OpEx week it may not make sense to apply regular TAs. Just let the specialists and the manipulators fight for this week and I think specialists probably have a bigger chance to win.

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 July 2007 - 07:41 AM.

[NAV]

Redfoliage, Let me tell you this. There is no TA methodology in the universe that can predict the future, be it a second from now or 100 years from now. But there methodologies, which can make uncanny price projections. It could be based on cycles, momentum thrusts, breadth thrusts, e-waves, measured moves, etc. What i am attempting to do in my blog is projections based on current wave structure. If the wave structure changes, a dynamic adjustment is always needed. Example of cystalballing/predicting is when the price is still moving up and you make a downside price projections. That's pure prediction. On the otherhand, the market breaks down and based on the momentum downthrust or cyclical model or channel rejection, you could make reasoanbly accurate projections. You would be surprised how many times they suceed than they fail. Try it. It's a fearless forecasters board

Edited by NAV, 16 July 2007 - 07:54 AM.

[Trend-Shifter]

Options bets predict a 10% market drop. That's a fearless forecast!

Bloomberg article: http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home

Highlights of article....
================
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bets in the options market against the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have exceeded wagers it will rise by a 2-to-1 margin for a month, the longest since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1995.

That's seen as a warning sign the market is due for a decline of 5 to 10 percent after the S&P 500 rose to two records last week, say managers of almost $1 trillion at Morgan Stanley Global Wealth Management, National City Private Client Group and Russell Investment Group. The Leuthold Group, whose flagship fund has beaten 99 percent of similar funds over the last five years, expects the S&P 500 to slide as much as 19 percent by the end of the year.

The options market is ``a bell ringer,'' said David Darst, who oversees $728 billion as chief investment strategist at New York-based Morgan Stanley's private banking unit. ``On a short- term basis, the market's ahead of itself and could have a pullback.'' Darst, who cashed in some stocks in the past 12 months, said the market could drop as much as 10 percent.

The increase in so-called put options coincides with analysts' outlook for the worst corporate earnings since 2002. Retail sales slid in June by the most in almost two years, a signal that near-record gasoline prices and falling home values are taking a bigger toll on consumers than economists had forecast.

[traderpaul]

NAV, I was at a resturant, one waiter said to another....." I missed buing Apple stock, I should broght them 30 points ago.".....the reply was "Buy them now"......Don't think they know anything about the e-waves....

[NAV]

NAV, I was at a resturant, one waiter said to another....." I missed buing Apple stock, I should broght them 30 points ago.".....the reply was "Buy them now"......Don't think they know anything about the e-waves....

Geez, i can always count on you folks to make fun of e-waves