10 replies to this topic

[Russ]

http://www.wealthdai...p?id=367&pub=wd


2007-07-10 - By James West


If you could’ve bought Amazon at $3 in 1997, you would have. Hindsight is 20/20, if not entirely honest. Buying a LOT of it in 1997 at $3 would have required a certain amount of vision and commitment to your instincts to risk so much on an emerging sector with no financial performance history. But Amazon was the forerunner of that decade’s Next Big Thing, which was the Internet.

If you got out at the top, which would put you in the top percentile of investors both professional and otherwise, you’re thinking (if you’re even active as an investor anymore) “Where is it? Where is the NBT?”

Now, in the present decade, where no truly Big Thing has yet made itself apparent, there are ample indicators to suggest what the Next Big Thing might be.

The Alternative Wave

It’s . Meaning non-hydrocarbon energy. And for this discussion, we will temporarily ignore uranium, for its use has grown sufficiently that it really can’t at this point be considered “alternative.”

Our investments at Venture Insider have already returned substantial value appreciation in short order. We bought NaiKun Wind Energy (TSX.V:NKW) at $0.27; it has since established a nice level for itself in the $3.00 to $3.10 range. NaiKun plans to sell the entire production capacity from its 550 square kilometer offshore wind farm within the Hecate Strait’s Energy Field, also known as the Haida Energy Field, to B.C. Hydro. (British Columbia’s number-one electricity provider.)

At yearly output rates of 6,750 gigawatt hours at an estimated average price of $7,400 per GWh, that could mean $50 million annually in revenue. What that ultimately means in terms of earnings per share remains to be seen as we wait for construction, maintenance and operation costs to firm up. Rumour has it that the government will actually end up paying substantially higher rates for the power produced.

With only 16.2 million shares outstanding, you will forgive me if I pat myself on the back for such foresight.

Oh, all right. I confess. The reason I bought this deal is because somebody to whom I listen said “buy.” So I did.

But the point is served. It’s an alternative energy company poised for a double after 30 days.

The Run of the River

Another runaway winner was Plutonic Power Corp. (TSX.V:PCC), which in eight months has increased in value over sevenfold, from $0.90 in May of 2006 to over $7 now.

These guys employ a green form of the hydroelectric power plant to generate power with a minimum of environmental disruptions. It’s called “run-of-river.”

Run-of-river technology harnesses the natural gravity of a river’s flow to produce electricity. Controlled volumes of water are taken from the river upstream of the powerhouse. Water from the river is channeled through a settling basin, which removes sediment that could harm the turbine. The water then flows through a pipe called a penstock. When the water reaches the bottom, it drives a turbine to produce electricity. It then flows back into the river, meaning that the flow in the river downstream is always exactly the same as the flow in the river above the project. Niagara Falls is an example of “run-of-river” technology.

Plutonic’s proposed 22 run-of-river projects have a design capacity of approximately 1100 MW and the potential to generate an estimated 3500 GWh per annum of green energy, enough to meet the annual energy needs of about 300,000 homes. Included in the 22 projects is the creation of the Green Power Corridor, a series of non-storage hydroelectric projects in southwestern B.C. that hold the potential to catapult British Columbia to the forefront of green energy generation in North America.

This company’s share structure remains tight as well, at 28.7 million shares out, 37.5 million fully diluted.

Storage Solutions

Another interesting alternative energy company is VRB Power Systems (TSX.V:VRB), also operating out of Vancouver, B.C.

VRB Power Systems Inc. is an energy storage technology developer that is manufacturing, marketing, and selling products utilizing the patented VRB Energy Storage System (VRB-ESS). The VRB-ESS can economically store and supply large amounts of electricity on demand and is focused on stationary applications. It is a long-life, cost-effective, low-maintenance, efficient technology that allows for the scalability of power and storage capacity independently.

The VRB-ESS is characterized by having the lowest ecological impact of all energy storage technologies and is unlike most conventional energy storage systems that rely on substances such as lead or cadmium.

The company is currently trading in the $.60 range, and is very liquid, with some big names in Canadian funds growing their holdings steadily. The big question for VRB is, can they penetrate the market sufficiently to generate significant sales?

The answer will largely be determined by the recent appointment of Brian Beck, who has over 30 years of experience in the electrical industry in Europe and North America and has been actively involved in the restructuring of electricity supply on both continents.

Most recently Mr Beck was General Manager of Caterpillar Energy Solutions, where he was responsible for initiatives in power quality and distributed generation.

Together with its management team, which includes Gary Lepp, formerly head of product development for Ballard Power Systems (TSX:BLD), the company has a unique product that is finding traction slowly but surely with various applications.


http://stockcharts.c...2686&r=3672.png

[ogm]

I agree. Energy revolution is the next big thing in the economy. There are much better ways to play it then shady penny stocks, though. But in principle... Cleantech is the future. Away from fossil fuels to solar, wind and renewable energy. Another big theme is that the world wants to go "green" and energy efficient. I'm very bullish on cleantech. Oil, coal, natural gas, are the things of the past. Demand for them will errode overtime as cleantech will start taking over. And the higher they go in price the better it is for Cleantech.

Edited by ogm, 17 July 2007 - 05:00 AM.

[Bob-C]

Hi Russ, thanks for the informative alternate-energy article and VRB.V chart; keep em' coming.

Here is the VRB.V daily TL chart:
http://chart.nu/char...6&filter=34.png

Here is the VRB.V weekly TL chart:
http://chart.nu/char...3&filter=21.png

Cheers,

Bob-C

Edited by Bob-C, 17 July 2007 - 05:18 AM.

[SilentOne]

ogm,

I am with you on this sector. Check out Raser Technologies (RZ). I accumulated at 7-8 and the weekly chart is starting to look very promising. I have a portfolio of about 20 positions taken in the last several weeks. I plan to hold most of them into 2008.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 17 July 2007 - 05:23 AM.

[ogm]

Thanks for the RZ. Chart does look good. My 2 core holdings in Cleantech are ETF's ... PZD and PBw And I have 15+ other assorted positions. Another couple ETF's I'm looking to buy on pullback are GEX and QCLN. Quite a few similar holdings between them, but it dfoesn't matter. I want to have high exposure to the sector.

Edited by ogm, 17 July 2007 - 05:37 AM.

[SilentOne]

ogm,

We own PBW. I have been studying the other ETFs to see which one to buy. PBW does hold a lot of big cap names. There is a fair degree of exposure to the semiconductor sector in names like AMAT. I guess the idea there is these companies are retooling to serve the fast-growing solar market with future thin-film technologies. AMAT is one tech stock I might buy on a pullback.

PBW ETF

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 17 July 2007 - 05:48 AM.

[swanstkdh]

Hi John(silent), It is soooo good to hear from you. Do you do professional management? I have followed your work. It is good. Thanks.

[SilentOne]

Hi swanstkdh,

Do you do professional management?

No, just my own private hedge fund.

cheers,

john

[ogm]

ogm,

We own PBW. I have been studying the other ETFs to see which one to buy. PBW does hold a lot of big cap names. There is a fair degree of exposure to the semiconductor sector in names like AMAT. I guess the idea there is these companies are retooling to serve the fast-growing solar market with future thin-film technologies. AMAT is one tech stock I might buy on a pullback.

PBW ETF

cheers,

john

Take a look at PZD and QCLN ETF's, they have a little more different make up. QCLN is more tech weighted, being a Nasdaq ETF.

I Like AMAT very much for those very reasons. I own it separately. I posted a monthly chart a couple weeks ago, its starting to look like its starting to lift its head after a long consoilidation period.

http://www.traders-t...?...093&hl=amat

[skyymaster]

I agree. Energy revolution is the next big thing in the economy.

There are much better ways to play it then shady penny stocks, though.

But in principle... Cleantech is the future. Away from fossil fuels to solar, wind and renewable energy. Another big theme is that the world wants to go "green"
and energy efficient.

I'm very bullish on cleantech.


Oil, coal, natural gas, are the things of the past. Demand for them will errode overtime as cleantech will start taking over. And the higher they go in price the better it is for Cleantech.

When you say "Cleantech" is that Clean Technology or a stock?

Nevermind, should of read down.
thx

Edited by skyymaster, 17 July 2007 - 08:48 AM.