13 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Covered for ISA Premium subs at 155700 for a 6.75 profit. Should have held on. Still, part of the reason I'm willing to do this type of trading is that normally I get to enjoy my evening. I'll not look a gift horse in the mouth. Mark

[ogm]

I don't think its too late, but I understand you completely. They just can't dump SPY's fast enough in AH. BSC and GS both down 4+ points after the close already too. Credit crunch won't be resolved tomorrow. Plus lukewarm reaction to INTC and YHOO earnings reports and other reports so far doesn't look too good for the market tomorrow. Pretty deadly combo.

Edited by ogm, 17 July 2007 - 04:50 PM.

[LarryT]

Covered for ISA Premium subs at 155700 for a 6.75 profit. Should have held on. Still, part of the reason I'm willing to do this type of trading is that normally I get to enjoy my evening.

I'll not look a gift horse in the mouth.

Mark

Still looking for a high in the cash index 1560s. After market futures trading is at Wednesday SR table downmax futures so this not unusual. Dow targets 14,138 area as max up potential.

LT d:^)

[arbman]

OGM, do you think there is a 40 SPX point drop possibility this week like by Friday? It would be a substantial option expiration surprise...

[ogm]

OGM, do you think there is a 40 SPX point drop possibility this week like by Friday?
It would be a substantial option expiration surprise...

I wouldn't be surprized, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Theoreticaly its very possible, though, I was just looking at that myself. Step 1 would be to completely reverse that big rally day from last week. In a mirror image to the downside. Lets see if we can do it tomorrow. So far it looks like we will wipe out almost half of it at the open.

Internals are setup for a decline, especcialy on NYSE. MCO rolled over and down 2 days in a row already. And summations are pointing down too.

Edited by ogm, 17 July 2007 - 08:03 PM.

[arbman]

I would think that the number of hedge funds exploding out of such a surprise would be tremendous, I wonder whether the Fed would step in by passing a coupon or something... This hole, if it happens, would be Airedale's coming cycle low I had the same thing too, but the market is so irrational, sometimes it just manages to hand your head to you. I can tell you that many folks including me, wondered this week many times where and when it will all end. I still have doubts myself, so this is probably it...

[ogm]

I would think that the number of hedge funds exploding out of such a surprise would be tremendous, I wonder whether the Fed would step in by passing a coupon or something...

This hole, if it happens, would be Airedale's coming cycle low

I had the same thing too, but the market is so irrational, sometimes it just manages to hand your head to you. I can tell you that many folks including me, wondered this week many times where and when it will all end.

I still have doubts myself, so this is probably it...

I seem to be the only excited bear tonite on this board
Notice how the persistant fully short position in the polls has evaporated tonite too.
Definitely would be a big surprize for many if we do tank 30-40 points into Friday.

Edited by ogm, 17 July 2007 - 08:10 PM.

[LarryT]

I would think that the number of hedge funds exploding out of such a surprise would be tremendous, I wonder whether the Fed would step in by passing a coupon or something...

This hole, if it happens, would be Airedale's coming cycle low

I had the same thing too, but the market is so irrational, sometimes it just manages to hand your head to you. I can tell you that many folks including me, wondered this week many times where and when it will all end.

I still have doubts myself, so this is probably it...

I seem to be the only excited bear tonite on this board
Notice how the persistant fully short position in the polls has evaporated tonite too.
Definitely would be a big surprize for many if we do tank 30-40 points into Friday.

Forty points is going to happen but not this Friday, next week by Friday it could even be down a 100 SnP points. Wednesday cycle forces are balanced. Starting Thursday they shift to the negative until Next Saturday then positive again so I still expect the SnP to top in the 1560s before it tanks.

Best,
LT

Edited by LarryT, 17 July 2007 - 08:17 PM.

[arbman]

I am bearish, I kept silent because I looked like an idiot the whole day, although my expectation was a high later in the week due to the expiration conundrum. I did not expect this bonus payment. I do think that if the market tanks here, the boyz will be very much in trouble and it should probably cascade lower since I am absolutely sure that the recent commercial futures positions will start to come off. I had this very rare pattern that if the current rally hesitated to decline early in the week, it would create a phenomenal sell off into the expirations. I posted here somewhere and I thought it was the low odds. So, the early sell off this week messed up my mind completely... Anyway, just like the last Thursday, somethings are hard to know in these markets. The last Thursday rally was also out of the ordinary, it did not fit into the cyclical picture, at least. It actually set up a huge extreme in my model, but I didn't expect them all to come down during the expirations. I am pretty certain that it will actually, thinking more and more about it... - kisa PS. We have about one standard deviation gap down here, there is no way they can rally it back up or stop it tomorrow morning, everyone will push the sell buttons...

Edited by kisacik, 17 July 2007 - 08:21 PM.

[ogm]

I had this very rare pattern that if the current rally hesitated to decline early in the week, it would create a phenomenal sell off into the expirations. I posted here somewhere and I thought it was the low odds. So, the early sell off this week messed up my mind completely...

But you know who will be surprized the most ? The real buyers of US equities.. foreigners
I think we're all monitoring a wrong sentiment here. We should measure the sentiment of foreign investors, and they seem to be pretty enthusiastic.

Don't they usualy buy at the top ?


http://www.minyanvil...dex.php?a=13364

2. Foreign Buyers Pick Up the Slack

Foreign buying of U.S. financial assets climbed to a record in May, led by corporate bond and equities purchases. Total holdings of equities, notes and bonds climbed a net $126.1 billion, from $80.3 billion the previous month, the Treasury Department reported. The Bloomberg consensus was for a net $72. billion in long-term securities.

Broken down by categories:

* International purchases of U.S. stocks jumped a net $41.9 billion ,compared with $27.4 billion in April.
* And foreigners bought nearly double the amount of corporate bonds in May than were purchased the previous month; $72.6 billion of corporate bonds were purchased, compared with $33.5 billion in April.
* Demand for Treasuries increased by $21.6 billion, compared with $376 million in April.
* Purchases of agency debt slowed to $27.5 billion from April's net gain of $36.1 billion.
* Finally, private investors purchased a net $152 billion in May, an all-time high according to Bloomberg.

So what do we make of this data, and why do we care? Two reasons:

1) Recall that the $3 billion China investment in Blackstone (BX) was announced in May, so a lot of eyes were watching the inflows today to see what kind of lemming effect China's investment might produce.

2) The sagging investment in agency debt is interesting and perhaps explains why Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson was in China last week urging the central bank to buy agency debt.