13 replies to this topic

[gorydog]

I am bearish, I kept silent because I looked like an idiot the whole day, although my expectation was a high later in the week due to the expiration conundrum. I did not expect this bonus payment. I do think that if the market tanks here, the boyz will be very much in trouble and it should probably cascade lower since I am absolutely sure that the recent commercial futures positions will start to come off.

I had this very rare pattern that if the current rally hesitated to decline early in the week, it would create a phenomenal sell off into the expirations. I posted here somewhere and I thought it was the low odds. So, the early sell off this week messed up my mind completely...

Anyway, just like the last Thursday, somethings are hard to know in these markets. The last Thursday rally was also out of the ordinary, it did not fit into the cyclical picture, at least. It actually set up a huge extreme in my model, but I didn't expect them all to come down during the expirations. I am pretty certain that it will actually, thinking more and more about it...

- kisa


PS. We have about one standard deviation gap down here, there is no way they can rally it back up or stop it tomorrow morning, everyone will push the sell buttons...

I never covered my shorts from last thursday, and am so deep underwater on them that I would loose all my profit for the last 3 weeks if I covered today. I stayed short because I saw too many negative trends to justify the rise. I have been playing scalps long and waiting. The boyz pushed it over a technical level late thursday, and triggered the mad buying frenzy. Shorts and puts have been flushed but good.
GD

[spielchekr]

But you know who will be surprized the most ? The real buyers of US equities.. foreigners
I think we're all monitoring a wrong sentiment here. We should measure the sentiment of foreign investors, and they seem to be pretty enthusiastic.
Don't they usualy buy at the top ?

Sentix looks frothy.

[OEXCHAOS]

But you know who will be surprized the most ? The real buyers of US equities.. foreigners
I think we're all monitoring a wrong sentiment here. We should measure the sentiment of foreign investors, and they seem to be pretty enthusiastic.

Don't they usualy buy at the top ?

Yup and that's a good point. They are the suckers of last resort, my old dad used to tell me when I was a pup-broker.

Mark

[thespookyone]

kisa- I can see it. I've also seen many times in the past when the market makes a surprize turn, commercials not only liquidate the longs, but start loading shorts on the other end-creating a cliff dive effect. For all the talk of market strength lately, the internals could hardly be worse-considering the speed and distance of the rise. Breadth has been little less than a bad joke on the way up, volume ditto. On the drops, however, the opposite has been in effect, nice volume and great breadth(negative). Then of course there is that thing called momentum-once truly started to the downside, with volume-where does it stop? Spooky