12 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Thanks... - kisa

[hiker]

the end for the period 2003 through 2009/2012? or the end for only 2007? who said it was a parabola?...looks pretty orderly as a price advance to me. "it is not what you see, but how you see it that defines your interpretation" ask any short right now who understands the meaning of that quote.. and I am not long much now..am net short...but do not read much into my present positioning...that 41.41 SMH reversal right at fib extension tgt today was something.

Edited by hiker, 17 July 2007 - 05:17 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

Good question. I don't think that this is LT top; however, I am looking for a correction.

My SMH breakout Fib extension target was 41.25 +/-. My breakout target is met; however, I am bullish in LT, ie higher high to come after a correction.

I remember that you killed EBAY breakout during the last earning report reaction.

Good trades

the end for the period 2003 through 2009/2012?

or the end for only 2007?

who said it was a parabola?...looks pretty orderly as a price advance to me.

"it is not what you see, but how you see it that defines your interpretation"

ask any short right now who understands the meaning of that quote..

and I am not long much now..am net short...but do not read much into my present positioning...that 41.41 SMH reversal right at fib extension tgt today was something.

[ogm]

I think this is 1998 type correction. That was a very severe correction cause by guess what... hedge fund problems. Of course Greenspan has bailed the LTCM out that time, and poured some liquidity on the fire that turned into a Nasdaq bubble which was reinforced by a theory of Greenspan's put ( Buy any crap , Greenie will bail us out) And then when that bubble poped he poured even more liquidity on the fire and created housing bubble. And now the housing bubble is poping ... back a full circle. What Bernanke will do is anyone's guess.

[pdx5]

There is too much bullish momentum to turn this ship on a dime. I am seeing another 6 to 7 weeks of climb for the indices.

[redfoliage2]

Thanks...
- kisa

If this were not an OpEx week, I world expect a mini-crash tomorrow. But a sell-off is in the cards though.

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 July 2007 - 05:48 PM.

[ogm]

There is too much bullish momentum to turn this ship on a dime.
I am seeing another 6 to 7 weeks of climb for the indices.

Take a look at 1998 chart. Similar setup. Several weeks hesitation, Then sharp rally, and then implosion.
What is interesting, that there was also credit crunch at that time, caused by LTCM. Very similar setup, very similar reasons.

Edited by ogm, 17 July 2007 - 05:54 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

1998 Jul 3mo correction into Oct? That was what I was saying... 3 mo correction into Sept/Oct.

I mentioned 3 mo correction a few days ago. Market breadth is very weak, making lower/low. Even though we are in later stage of selectivity, the ND breadth is not healthy at major market breakout, SPX 1550.

Take a look at 1998 chart. Similar setup. Several weeks hesitation, Then sharp rally, and then implosion.
What is interesting, that there was also credit crunch at that time, caused by LTCM. Very similar setup, very similar reasons.

[cycletimer]

A top (possibly) in terms of price but not time.....a TOP may happen between Aug 2nd and Aug 7th, like a retest high before a 8-10 week precipitous decline. My IRA's are locked and loaded in BEAR funds.

[Islander]

I believed in the melt-up (and it came) and now I believe in a slow lingering fade into fall (started today I think). Nothing terrible, nothing dramatic, just the slow loss of sanity as this board waits for the "right time" to short. This takes better men than we; repent, go to cash, and live for November. I will hold a few shorts, but damned few. Best, Islander.