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Blow off is bad either way but let the excitement begin


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#1 skyymaster

skyymaster

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Posted 18 July 2007 - 08:04 AM

From Monday,


The FT this morning is quoting Stephen Jen, Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist on major emerging market economies. He is saying that while cheap credit may be drying up the emerging market economies are flush with cash and their growing interest in establishing sovereign wealth funds could well drive equity and other capital markets around the world to new heights. ”Major emerging market economies currently have a collective $1,500bn worth of excess reserves, - defining “excess” as official foreign reserves exceeding the amount needed for liquidity purposes, based on their “conservative rule-of-thumb”. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/

Dr. Bernanke is to appear before the House and the Senate this week. Those appearances which occur Wednesday before the Senate and Thursday before the House will dominate the discussions for the week. The market will be listening for any mention of inflation concerns as well as thoughts on the economy and housing.

The news is of better-than-expected earnings reports thus far, and 2nd quarter reporting is in full swing. Expectations for further upbeat earnings will support the market, but at what point does high energy prices, weak consumer spending, subprime problems and higher interest rates come into the picture? I am still looking at mid August for this market to correct, but blow off phases can be much longer and stronger than we can imagine
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