4 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Blowoff Top in $XAU Muddies the Picture... I have published that my belief is that the market is going to follow the commodities. Now today, we're getting new highs in $XAU and oil is at the highs on the year as well. I follow the $XAU for simplicity. Ordinarily... as has been the case since this long rally began, the broader market has followed these commodities higher and higher. I can make a case now for divergence fundamentally, but technically I have to ignore that until the technicals confirm it. I'm watching now, because at the very top we could have a big spike in commodities that kills the equity market. The movement into bonds is confirmation of weakness in stocks...

I'm holding off on any new trades until this is settled. Do Not Forget this is Opex week.

Edited by SemiBizz, 18 July 2007 - 10:40 AM.

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

11:50 These lows were made on close to 10% more volume on Nasdaq so far. If we don't get a new high today, the daily candle will be Crow #2 of the "three black crows" chart pattern. I'll post a chart on top here so we can follow that today....

[SemiBizz]

12:15 OK, quick drop now... 2671, 2662.

[SemiBizz]

12:45 Taking short term position profits - did not like the timing of the low we just made... prepared to re-enter.

[SemiBizz]

1:05 Completely flat now. It's pretty apparent to me that they have the US $ right on the cliff here... they are either going to throw it over the falls or throw the economy and the stock market over the falls... I still lean toward #2. We're going to know pretty quickly though, because now is the logical time for that $ Index 80 to break....