10 replies to this topic

[NAV]

A breakaway gap tommorow will confirm this count.

Edited by NAV, 18 July 2007 - 09:28 PM.

[slatedrake]

or maybe...


By cjtalbot at 2007-07-18

[denleo]

NAV, no, there will not be 3 of 3 (whatever that is). There will be strength tomorrow as a part of a new trading range. Sell strength, Buy weakness for now. Denleo

[NAV]

NAV, no, there will not be 3 of 3 (whatever that is). There will be strength tomorrow as a part of a new trading range.

Sell strength, Buy weakness for now.

Denleo

Denleo,

This is a 3 of 3 of minor degree, which projects wave 3 to end around ES 1600, if that's what it is. Anyway, i don't trade e-waves. It's a good way of losing money. I use e-waves as clues, as to what's happening. My trading is 100% based on PRICE MOMENTUM and nothing else.

[thespookyone]

Nav: I think we gap and run tomorrow. I was short into today, then noticed equity buyers loading puts at the bottom-and had to take a profit. Equity players ended the day a bit shorter, even with late buying, and index players have yet to get to the level of shorts at which I'm looking to join them. Not as confident as you in a multi day play yet, it will be hit and run for me tomorrow-but the volatility lately has made that nice as well. , till I see the whites of their eyes, anyway.

Edited by thespookyone, 18 July 2007 - 11:07 PM.

[btrade]

or maybe...


By cjtalbot at 2007-07-18

GREAT CHART! What program is that?

[eminimee]

Just be careful....yes..we can explode here...but could also top or get another leg down...it's the OEX that's really bugging me....I just sold the ES long at 1560..flat now.

I actually lost sleep over this last night
It's the OEX and again....my first thought when I look at the possible counts is...."Major top or Intermediate correction top?...or no top in sight?" If we are putting in a bull market top then I think we go higher...if it's an intermediate correction top..we can top right here or maybe have topped on oex. While futures look pretty frisky this morning...(was long....just got out at 1560...now flat)
I'm still very concerned with the OEX because of another non confirmation at the last high with spx. (comments on chart)
So here's the two ways I see OEX. First chart would suggest a B wave top and only an intermediate term correction coming.....the second is that we may have only topped the first leg of a wave 3 of an ED....or have completed a wave 3 and still need another dip for overlap for wave 4....note that the leg marked wave 3 on the second chart is a 5er...maybe suggesting only half of 3...or a top of B. Hope I'm not too confusing...I've put counts on separate charts to avoid some confusion in what I'm saying...
What I'm going to watch for now is if we get a new high on spx (completing smaller ED 5th) and get OEX now with a nonconfirmation making a lower high.......I think we will have a some type of substantial top in place...whether it's a bull market top or intermediate top will be answered in time....if we top...oex count only suggests an IT top but we could see 650/60 oex...I'm neutral until I see more.




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Edited by Teaparty, 19 July 2007 - 06:46 AM.

[NAV]

tp, What is interesting here is, the angle of ascent is getting steeper and steeper, which happens only in wave 3. Once this leg peaks out, the hourly MACD/RSI will tell the story as to whether we are in the wave 3 of 3 scenario or some ED scenario. Right now based on the increasing momo and angle of ascent, i am giving the benefit of doubt to the wave 3 of 3 scenario. I am still carrying 2/3 of my ES position. Also given the disinterest in the long side and the certainity of downside at this point, among many traders, any upside acceleration here should attract wide participation a.k.a POR. It's getting interesting...

Edited by NAV, 19 July 2007 - 07:04 AM.

[eminimee]

Maybe.....I'm just getting the slight whiff of bull trap here. . . hey...taking 6 on half and 17.5 on the other half ain't bad with some size I might add...waiting for next set up.

Edited by Teaparty, 19 July 2007 - 07:06 AM.

[NAV]

Maybe.....I'm just getting the slight whiff of bull trap here. . . hey...taking 6 on half and 17.5 on the other half ain't bad with some size I might add...waiting for next set up.

Nice trade.