15 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

It is pretty obvious that the cycle turn expected on 7/13 did not happen. That leaves me with 7/27 for the next possible turn. I'm expecting the days from here until then to be explosive. I came to this conclusion watching the commodity group take us even higher. I expect the broad market to trend with it, possibly as high as the 2892 High Volume High from 1/2001 on the monthly 2892 is a long way from here, but there are plenty of trading days to get us there. For tomorrow I am looking for 2751 high. Now, I could be all wet on this. I will know if conditions change pretty quickly with my technical work... AND, because we are in parabola-land the gains are completely reversible at any point. I just needed to lay out the best/worst case scenario (depending if you are long or short)....

[skyymaster]

It is pretty obvious that the cycle turn expected on 7/13 did not happen. That leaves me with 7/27 for the next possible turn. I'm expecting the days from here until then to be explosive. I came to this conclusion watching the commodity group take us even higher. I expect the broad market to trend with it, possibly as high as the 2892 High Volume High from 1/2001 on the monthly

2892 is a long way from here, but there are plenty of trading days to get us there. For tomorrow I am looking for 2751 high.

Now, I could be all wet on this. I will know if conditions change pretty quickly with my technical work... AND, because we are in parabola-land the gains are completely reversible at any point. I just needed to lay out the best/worst case scenario (depending if you are long or short)....

Thanks for the update. Like I was saying before, staying flexible is a key to survive this game or one could just forget about it and earn 5% risk-free and there are other ways to make money. Bull Market is just not for stock markets. It is greed, fear and adrenline that keeps many in this. Kind of like a bad gamling habit.

[SemiBizz]

Yes, the quickest way to lose all your money is to have religion about this market... As Wyckoff wrote, assume the costume of bull or bear as market conditions dictate...

[skyymaster]

Yes, the quickest way to lose all your money is to have religion about this market... As Wyckoff wrote, assume the costume of bull or bear as market conditions dictate...

That's right. Most probably know about Parabolic and love the adrenline that comes with it. Now, when they get up there they think they will be able to get out. Well, remember, Hypoxia sets in at high altitudes. In the real world it is starts at 11,000 to 11,500 feet. Well we are at 14,000, pardon the analogy. So, while the euphoria is nice for the moment, one better have a "PARA-Chute" for that PARA-Bol ride down.

Oh, but maybe it will be different this time.

[SemiBizz]

I fly with an oxygen bottle myself... although I've been known to fly at 15,000 for a few minutes without one... As for the market, as long as the Fed keeps on printing, that's all they think they need to hold it up. One thing that concerns me is Bernanke's statement yesterday that the "Fed will maintain a strong economy"... because that is NOT how it works... at all.

[peregrine]

With the understanding that you are using the commodities as a stalking horse for stocks...a quick inspection of the daily charts of XAU and GLD show failing volatilities at the peak of a sharp angle of advance. I'd bet on at least a pullback for the PMs soon.

[relax]

great posts semi

and i completely agree with you on two things

next turn date should be july 27 and next one is august 8-10

exactly this could turn on us really fast

i know people say CPI does not matter - but i think it gives the market a good foundation which makes buy on any dip a great strategy

how does this market get in trouble - high CPI, rate hike from japan, rising US yield - and none of them are really relevant at the moment

I remember your line this thing will come back to around 2.580

my guess is july 27 or august 8-10 (as far as i remember oil made a top august 10 last year), so maybe oil and other commodities will lead the drop as you assume

;-)

It is pretty obvious that the cycle turn expected on 7/13 did not happen. That leaves me with 7/27 for the next possible turn. I'm expecting the days from here until then to be explosive. I came to this conclusion watching the commodity group take us even higher. I expect the broad market to trend with it, possibly as high as the 2892 High Volume High from 1/2001 on the monthly

2892 is a long way from here, but there are plenty of trading days to get us there. For tomorrow I am looking for 2751 high.

Now, I could be all wet on this. I will know if conditions change pretty quickly with my technical work... AND, because we are in parabola-land the gains are completely reversible at any point. I just needed to lay out the best/worst case scenario (depending if you are long or short)....

[SemiBizz]

2730 target for today.

Edited by SemiBizz, 19 July 2007 - 12:54 PM.

[arbman]

Semi, do you think the volume on MSFT would qualify for a C&H break out? Thanks...

[SemiBizz]

Semi, do you think the volume on MSFT would qualify for a C&H break out?

Thanks...

Like to see over 100M for that. We'll get it tomorrow.