13 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Let me be very clear here, the only way the market can go higher from here is if there will be some heavy shorting, or a short squeeze bounce. I really do not think that there is any juice left in this market for the IT. The price momentum on the longer terms might be up, but yesterday the investment grade (IG) corporate spreads actually went up with the rally. The junk spreads have been going up for a while consistent with the Mar 2005 top, but the IG did not really go up with the rallies and it stood at the 2007 high ready to breach into the 50bps and raise some eyebrows. This is where the IT liquidity stands in my view, the B grade (junk) bonds are becoming essentially insolvent, there is no demand or no money. The only way this can happen is if the rates go lower and the rates can not go lower especially with the state of the USD, it will become like the Mexican Peso. The foreign buying was probably the reason of this latest run up which wracked havoc the shorts... Now, the breath momentum has been very weak, but I really do not take that as the measure at the moment. I always said it, the new highs vs new lows momentum is the critical component that carries the indices toward the final tops, especially during the large cap rallies. It looked terrible yesterday at the highs and it is looking worse today with this decline. The momentum has to end somewhere, but it will obviously test the highs several times before giving up, there are always some late buyers stepping in. It is going to get very tactical from here, since the trend is turning... Good luck, - kisa

[gorydog]

bought with all fists at this low....as stated for most the the week, I have not been long much.

this may just be a daytrade.

short GLD from near 68..risky trade.

look back 30 days, we bounced at trendline support, along with some support levels. I think that's it for today on the downside. Re-enter shorts near the close

GD

[VolPivots]

weighing VST downside risk vs. upside reward....hedges are off for now.....

[pdx5]

kisacik's post above makes sense to me. I am not touching this market until the worst part of seasonal period is over...sometime beginning of November (on the long side).