15 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

NYSE's odd-lot shorting spiked to 8M friday, which was a record, and on top of that, the NYSE set a new record for all time total shorts piled on.

Add that to the VIX that's been getting higher and higher into crash levels...and the gigantic short positions held by large traders in futures vs gigantic long position held by commercials..

But the position polls via II or AAII or Marketvane or Rasmussen polls aren't in bear territory..

This is either going to explode upwards in some gigantic fashion.. or..

I dunno, but this may be of interest to those following the 1937 fractal.

Time Article

I still think SPX down, NDX up seems to be the likely case until continued earnings in techs shed light on the direction of the market.

[Pabst]

NYSE's odd-lot shorting spiked to 8M friday, which was a record, and on top of that, the NYSE set a new record for all time total shorts piled on.

Add that to the VIX that's been getting higher and higher into crash levels...and the gigantic short positions held by large traders in futures vs gigantic long position held by commercials..

But the position polls via II or AAII or Marketvane or Rasmussen polls aren't in bear territory..

This is either going to explode upwards in some gigantic fashion.. or..

I dunno, but this may be of interest to those following the 1937 fractal.

Time Article

I still think SPX down, NDX up seems to be the likely case until continued earnings in techs shed light on the direction of the market.

Awesome job with the Time article. I for one am VERY into the '37 fractal. Trouble is: it portends a 2400 NDX.

[Rogerdodger]

Record shorts = floor. Unless the floor crashes, which seldom happens. Historic fractals are curiosities but suffer from new input, IMO. One new input is the fact that you can be long a short etf!??? Also with restrictions on shorting being lifted, we may see some real bear raids.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 July 2007 - 04:57 PM.

[ogm]

Just to put this in perspective. Absolute numbers are meaningless. Look at the general trading volume trend , its increasing. What does the % relationship look like ?

Here is SPY chart for example. Everything looks like this.

What I do think is important is that huge expansion of volume with multiple huge volume red candles. Smells like a lot of distribution. IS anyone still following that IBD system ? I'm guessing it has picked up on some of those.

Volume quite often expands dramaticaly at turning points. As a lot of stock changes hands and supply meets demand. And we had a multi week churn on very heavy volume lately. And last week during that rally we're having some serious red volume spikes too.

Also, notice that the dramatic volume expansion started in February. That also was the time when Bear Sterns stopped redemptions from its hedge fund. Read.. The credit bubble gave a big leak.

Edited by ogm, 21 July 2007 - 05:56 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

One thing for sure is that this market is hard to read. Price wise we are not seeing a blow-off top jumps over the bollinger bands, and TRIN has not yet gone low enough to warrent a real sell-signal. Over all the market is acting bullish, with sharp pullbacks to allow brokerage houses to buy at lower prices. With that said OEX Put/Call has been relatively high which is somewhat bearish. On the real bullish side VIX has been increasing with the market. When this happens it is generally a continuation of higher prices. Barry

[ogm]

Here is something else interesting. And kinda unusual. Though, this is not a widely followed indicator and I can't say I understand it completely, but...... For what its worth.


NYSE member Net Buy/Sell ( Insiders so to say)..... Why didn't they buy the last uptrend ? Why is it all net selling since February ? Smart money getting out ? As I said, February is a very significant date.

I think we're to much concentrated on what "dumb" money is doing and trying to do the opposite. Maybe another good tactic is just to follow "smart" money, and not to try outsmart dumb money ? Just BSing

Also notice just general explosion in trading volume since 2000. Trading volume are increasing. Period. I'll post a chart later of daily trading volume relative to GDP, as soon as I'll find it, looks interesting too.


Description of this from decisionpoint's website :
"Charts show the net number of shares bought or sold by NYSE Members. Note, these data are for volume and do not reveal net long or short positions in terms of dollar value. NYSE delays publication of these data by two weeks. The charts are aligned to reflect this delay."

Edited by ogm, 21 July 2007 - 06:18 PM.

[selecto]

I believe the 1937 correlation is dusty. This one is now 97%.

Edited by selecto, 21 July 2007 - 07:36 PM.

[arbman]

ogm, thanks for this chart.

Edited by kisacik, 21 July 2007 - 08:45 PM.

[mortiz]

The short interest ratio (relative to average daily volume) was around 0.62 in March 1937, so while the magnitude of uncovered shorts in early 1937 may have been large, the short interest ratio was a far cry from the current 8.40.

FWIW

Randy N.

[traderpaul]

The short interest ratio (relative to average daily volume) was around 0.62 in March 1937, so while the magnitude of uncovered shorts in early 1937 may have been large, the short interest ratio was a far cry from the current 8.40.

FWIW

Randy N.

Randy, Who (what group) do you think is shorting this market right now? The insitutions or the little guy (j6p)?