4 replies to this topic

[kaiser soze]

Almost every trend-change in the financials (including consolidations) over the past three years has been preceded by a range bar on the weekly chart. Consecutive range bars have usually resulted in consolidation patterns which have been resolved by guess what ? Another range bar.

Maybe Denleo is on to something with his post yesterday.

Also the volume was huge on this week's bar.



If the image doesnt load properly, see it here.

Edited by kaiser soze, 21 July 2007 - 03:56 PM.

[ogm]

Almost every trend-change in the financials (including consolidations) over the past three years has been preceded by a range bar on the weekly chart. Consecutive range bars have usually resulted in consolidation patterns which have been resolved by guess what ? Another range bar.

Maybe Denleo is on to something with his post yesterday.

Also the volume was huge on this week's bar.



If the image doesnt load properly, see it here.

Wake up Look at the weekly chart on many individual banks and brokers. They are NOT going up any time soon. Their business is falling apart. LBO's, IPO's, CDO's, you name it. Its all going to hell in a hand basket. Lights out on liquidity.

And you know what ? They saw it coming. Remeber that dump in February ? Thats when BSC stopped redemptions. Financials underperformed ever since, and where stuck in a flatline on heavy volume. There was a tremendous amount of distribution. That was THE CONSOLIDATION before the trend change. The trend was changing from up to down. Now the cows are starting to come home to roost and they are starting to break. Wait till they start warning, then we'll know what the real extend of the damage is.

Only then it may be safer to start looking who's cheap and who's not.

[kaiser soze]

I know the fundamentals and I agree with you, oqm. But the tape is the tape is the tape. And like it or not, the weekly range bar has been a good tool at picking up even minor trend-changes on the XLF chart. And that last bar's humongous volume-doesn't that signal atleast a minor capitulation, a pause before more decline ? Now if the next week's bar is another range bar, it might be a consolidation before moving lower. Or we may turn back up higher. But I think its best to keep an open mind at the present moment.

[ogm]

I know the fundamentals and I agree with you, oqm.

But the tape is the tape is the tape. And like it or not, the weekly range bar has been a good tool at picking up even minor trend-changes on the XLF chart. And that last bar's humongous volume-doesn't that signal atleast a minor capitulation, a pause before more decline ?

Now if the next week's bar is another range bar, it might be a consolidation before moving lower. Or we may turn back up higher. But I think its best to keep an open mind at the present moment.

Weekly charts are all breaking down on heavy volume after weeks of flatline distribution. I'm sorry, thats what I see. Moving averages are broken, reversing, dailys in unquestionable downtrends, and monthly's have multiple negative divergences also ready to roll over. You can argue that they are a little bit oversold, but they are in downtrends already.

[JAP]

GS is leading the way too... all the way doooooooooooooooooooooown!