22 replies to this topic

[NAV]

So far all we have done is retested the breakout area. I will wait for at least a MACD cross on this chart, before getting bearish. Ideally i would wait for the second MACD cross after a negative divergence. Until then buying every hourly buys will make more money than selling the hourly sells. As for the VST, i think Friday's bottom may get tested on Monday morning, although not necessary.

Edited by NAV, 21 July 2007 - 11:10 PM.

[NAV]

Just to make it clear, i am bullish here and not bearish. I don't like sitting on fence or give a semblence of being a balanced analsyt by weighing both bullish and bearish factors. Heck, i am trader. I gotta make bets. That can only be made on one side !.

And some think i keep moving to different timeframe to justify my bullish bias. Here's something from traderpaul on one of my thread below.....

NAV, we all do it.....If you didn't like the looks of the 5 min chart, you switched to 60 min chart.....then daily, weekly and yearly chart.....Ahh....That sure looks good.....

My reponse is, no matter how you slice it or dice it, it's a bull market. As for my trading, i really don't care what the weekly or the monthly or the yearly does. I am a hourly swing trader. My trading signals come from hourly charts. I can go short when the daily is up and go long when the daily is down, if my hourly charts says so. If i get a hourly continuation sell on Monday, i will short it. If i get a hourly buy, i will buy it. But if you ask me, if i am bullish or bearish, i am unequivocally "Bullish", cuz i don't see anything on the charts that is bearish, at least not yet !. If you do, that's what makes the markets.

[Tor]

Just to make it clear, i am bullish here and not bearish. I don't like sitting on fence or give a semblence of being a balanced analsyt by weighing both bullish and bearish factors. Heck, i am trader. I gotta make bets. That can only be made on one side !.

And some think i keep moving to different timeframe to justify my bullish bias. Here's something from traderpaul on one of my thread below.....

NAV, we all do it.....If you didn't like the looks of the 5 min chart, you switched to 60 min chart.....then daily, weekly and yearly chart.....Ahh....That sure looks good.....

My reponse is, no matter how you slice it or dice it, it's a bull market. As for my trading, i really don't care what the weekly or the monthly or the yearly does. I am a hourly swing trader. My trading signals come from hourly charts. I can go short when the daily is up and go long when the daily is down, if my hourly charts says so. If i get a hourly continuation sell on Monday, i will short it. If i get a hourly buy, i will buy it. But if you ask me, if i am bullish or bearish, i am unequivocally "Bullish", cuz i don't see anything on the charts that is bearish, at least not yet !. If you do, that's what makes the markets.

Good post and good trading NAV.

I am short from Friday and look for some test down on Monday to close em off. My min entry was 1550 cash price, currently 1534, so will see what I can getout of this.

So far, it simply looks like a test down, and like you for me the weight of evidence suggests it is a strong longer term bull market (so far).

[Tor]

I personally am alert to the possibility that DOW 14,000 becomes a more significant res, but am not trading that way yet.

[gorydog]

I personally am alert to the possibility that DOW 14,000 becomes a more significant res, but am not trading that way yet.

If you look at all the averages together, they have a similar pattern: all have bounced off trendline support, lower bollinger band support, and resistance from the big breakout. No way we close down monday without some strongly negative news.

http://stockcharts.c...8181&r=6870.png

GD

[traderpaul]

NAV, Take out all the oscillators and moving averages and trend lines and subsitute SPY for ES so that you can see the volume..... Now, imagine that is the chart of a UFO flying object.....This UFO was flying and gaining altitide from March to June.....She was stalling since June, burning a lot of fuel (volume) and going nowhere, Ok, OK she made a slight new high.....Now, you are so sure that the next step is up?.....March to June looks like distribution to me.....

[traderpaul]

Here is the chart.....
http://stockcharts.c...1821&r=1753.png

[kaiser soze]

I personally am alert to the possibility that DOW 14,000 becomes a more significant res, but am not trading that way yet.

If you look at all the averages together, they have a similar pattern: all have bounced off trendline support, lower bollinger band support, and resistance from the big breakout. No way we close down monday without some strongly negative news.

http://stockcharts.c...8181&r=6870.png

GD

GD,

I recall you were short Friday afternoon. In light of your bullish view, did you cover or are you going to cover Monday ?

[gorydog]

GD,

I recall you were short Friday afternoon. In light of your bullish view, did you cover or are you going to cover Monday ?

Covered about 15 mins before the close - you were right about pinning 50 on the Q's, and I didn't want to be holding the bag Monday AM. I had puts so even thought there wasn't a big move a made decent $$. I'm more or less flat now. I've been trading very short term mostly. I started to think about friday as a successful test of support, and that the next move should be up. At the same time I'm also thinking aapl and amzn will have good numbers that will disappoint the overly optimistic, so I'll position for that Tuesday.
GD

[SemiBizz]

Regarding SPY and Volumes... Derivatives are known to give a false picture in volume analysis. You should verify your observations against the underlying index. If there is divergence, the picture provided by the underlying index rules... reason.. overall volume is greater... The reason for this is dynamic hedging.