4 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

This turned out to be more of a story board.... maybe they'll make a movie...
Might take awhile to get your heads around it...
The reference points are the two verticals on the left side of center....comments on chart.
PS: I feel strongly that OEX is on a mission to hit AT LEAST the .786 retrace...






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and not to be left out...a little on XMI



The biggies...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EXMI




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If you remember the ratio chart I posted the other day with the ndx:spx ratio breaking out of a 5 year triangle...this also may be saying money is headed for the big caps. I would imagine that's where repatriated funds would head if the dollar starts rebounding.




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Here..posted again.



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[ogm]

Here is the problem I have with all these ratios. They have nothing to do with direction, just with relative performance. That means if SPX falls 2%, NDX may only fall 1%, but thats all it shows. It doesn't mean that NDX will rally. It just means that SPX may be a better short. And since its more broadly wiegthed among sectors, and especcilay very heavily weighted in financials, I think that will be exactly the case. But it doesn't mean that if the general market turns down, NDX will keep going up. Take a look at Nasdaq's A/D line, it just broke below previous support. It looks much worse then NYSE A/D. Horrendous. There is very little number of these stocks that have been providing relative strength for NDX. MSFT and INTC already weakened, CSCO is about to. Its mostly RIMM, AAPL and now ISRG, and they are acting like 2000. Can these 5-10 stocks pull the weight for long ? Especcialy consiudering that the rest of the NAsdaq is falling apart as measured by the A/D ? Doubtful.

Edited by ogm, 22 July 2007 - 12:39 PM.

[eminimee]

If you can use NAAD for trading...all the power to you.

When OEX:SPX ratio is heading up....it's powerful...that's my point...OEX is almost 50% of SPX in terms of market cap.



Here's your NAAD..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAAD&p=W&st=1992-04-01&i=t84407338804&r=2958.png

[ogm]

my NAAD shows the overal health of the market. At this point it indicates that the market is being lead up by a very narrow group of large cap stocks. How many points did AAPL and rIMM contributed to the NDX run over the past few month ? Do you think they will perpetually go up ? Every hedgehog on the planet has already crowded into those stocks like they are the last stocks on earth. And in a way they are. Out of a [bleeep] and a half of the stocks on the NAsdaq stock market, only a small group is running into parabolic uptrends while the rest of the market is lifeless. This market has no health, and didn't have any health for the past few years. And thats what my NAAD is showing.

Edited by ogm, 22 July 2007 - 12:54 PM.

[eminimee]

I agree with everything you are saying...and as I've said ...I too am looking for a top here.....but until we turn and confirm....I'd like to have a reason ready for this thing blowing off...or just continuing a very powerful bull market.