Some indicators are a little extreme, here are a few that suggested a bounce *could* happen.
CPC - Daily spiked to 1.48 which is around Feb 27 levels. Granted around Feb 27 the CPC stayed at those levels for a week or so. On the other hand Feb 27 did so gradually, while today's went from .83 to 1.48 in one day.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC...0&listNum=3
VIX - Closed above it's BB, virtually every time it did that when the BB was not sloping upwards resulted in a reversal.
NYSE A/D Volume - 3rd time it been this low in many months. Early June and Feb 27th. I like this indicator as it spots reversals rather quickly (unlike CPC, which can stall for a while).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYU...1&listNum=3
Nasdaq A/D Volume - Same as above, but only Feb 27th was lower than today. $Naud registered at -900.
End of july according to two sources (Almanac and Senticator.com) are both suggesting that end of July tend to be positive.
--- That being said, there are same reasons as to why this sell-off can continue.
The YEN made an impressive bounce and can continue to do so.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY...8&listNum=3
McClellan - Doesnt appear to be slowing,
Summations - horrible, ogm can comment better.
Some TLs broken, but a bounce brewing?
Started by
rkd80
, Jul 24 2007 04:02 PM
7 replies to this topic
#1
rkd80
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Posted 24 July 2007 - 04:02 PM
“be right and sit tight”
#2
arbman
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Posted 24 July 2007 - 04:22 PM
It is so oversold that I would not be surprised if it gets a V-shape reversal for a few days...
#3
Russ
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Posted 24 July 2007 - 04:31 PM
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$INDU
PnF chart is projecting 13,550 for the dow which would more than close its gap. Dow gap should be closed at least before this decline finds some support, and lets not forget airedales Heast cycle work for a 4.5 year low by about July 27 someone mentioned.
PnF chart is projecting 13,550 for the dow which would more than close its gap. Dow gap should be closed at least before this decline finds some support, and lets not forget airedales Heast cycle work for a 4.5 year low by about July 27 someone mentioned.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#4
arbman
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Posted 24 July 2007 - 04:38 PM
Qs are impressively bouncing in the after hours, AMZN is up 15%.
#5
SemiBizz
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Posted 24 July 2007 - 04:48 PM
We'll get a bounce a little over 1% and then we'll see from there. Looking for something like 2662-71 Nasdaq...
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#6
arbman
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Posted 24 July 2007 - 04:50 PM
You were so sure we were going up...
I am happy with the way I see with my glasses, I guess...
#7
SemiBizz
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Posted 24 July 2007 - 04:51 PM
What's your point? Are you beating up on me? I am not sure this is over BTW...
Edited by SemiBizz, 24 July 2007 - 04:51 PM.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#8
rkd80
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Posted 24 July 2007 - 05:05 PM
It cant be over there are too many internal issues that the market has to work over, so semi is right, its not over. But given the insane put buying we saw, clearly people are piling on the short bus as they are sensing something imminent.
We all know by now, that nothing is so simple with this market. SO there will be a point and I believe it will come soon when new bears are frustrated and scratching their heads. Well, this is all fancy philosophy - so I am just going by the indicators.
The only possibility that can happen is Feb 27. type dead cat bounce and more marginal lows, but given how QUICKLY some of the indicators went to the polar opposite side a V-shaped bounce is more likely.
This is what a possible next few days can look like:
Wednesday: We test today's lows around 10 and continue higher for rest of day.
Thursday: Close higher, but probably swingy.
Friday: GDP report, who knows what can happen. Reaction can be very positive, then sell off.
Monday: This is a tough one for me, as this is a very positive day seasonally, very. So i'd say up.
Rest of week: Sell off until SPX ~1480
“be right and sit tight”
