8 replies to this topic

[ogm]

ES.. looks like if we break 1530 or so, we can easily go 12-13 points in a blink. Momentum has turned positive for now.

TY.. the opposite. Rising wedge, breaking lower trendline, momentum going negative.

All makes sense.

I would generaly caution trading against moving average configuration, but I think there is a good chance ES will pop tomorrow and TY dumps.

I juat put in an order to buy ES at 1530 stop. and sold TY short.

Edited by ogm, 25 July 2007 - 08:44 PM.

[Pabst]

How freakin' ironic OGM. I too have bought ES and sold Notes tonight. I have great measured move resistance in the Bond. I mostly trade Bonds (I was a local in the Bond pit) but I picked ZN (the electronic TY) tonight because the Bond gets a bit thin in the PM.

One of these days I'll figure out how to copy my charts but there's terrific measured symetry in both Bonds and notes at today's highs. If you pull up $TYX you'll notice this 39bp plunge in rates is close to the early '07 40bp move. What makes it real compeling is the fact that the Jan yield high was the same as todays yield low! Weird stuff. A breakout to the upside (not in yield but in price) will only come if there's a stock meltdown.

ES.. looks like if we break 1530 or so, we can easily go 12-13 points in a blink. Momentum has turned positive for now.

TY.. the opposite. Rising wedge, breaking lower trendline, momentum going negative.

All makes sense.

I would generaly caution trading against moving average configuration, but I think there is a good chance ES will pop tomorrow and TY dumps.

I juat put in an order to buy ES at 1530 stop. and sold TY short.

[ogm]

I sold the TY, but didn't buy ES yet. I'll only buy if they break 1530. But they probably will. I think we'll get a sharp spike in the morning based on AAPL and general oversold condition.

I'm a little more confident in TY setup but I wouldn't exclude a possibility of stocks meltdown. I'm not going to stay in that trade long, probably just through the morning spike.... Good luck to both of us either way:)

As for posting charts, I just use regular Windows MS paint and.... http://imageshack.us/
fast and easy. Right click-copy image from wherever you're copying, paste it into MS paint and then upload on imageshack.

Edited by ogm, 25 July 2007 - 09:31 PM.

[atlasshrugged]

I sold the TY, but didn't buy ES yet. I'll only buy if they break 1530. But they probably will. I think we'll get a sharp spike in the morning based on AAPL and general oversold condition.

I'm a little more confident in TY setup but I wouldn't exclude a possibility of stocks meltdown. I'm not going to stay in that trade long, probably just through the morning spike.... Good luck to both of us either way:)

As for posting charts, I just use regular Windows MS paint and.... http://imageshack.us/
fast and easy. Right click-copy image from wherever you're copying, paste it into MS paint and then upload on imageshack.

I am already in at 1527...another sleepless night! LOL

[rkd80]

If ES breaks out to the upside then the next resistance that I see is the TL connecting the 7/19 and 7/23 tops. So the target would be around 1545ish...price changes depending on how fast we get there obviously.

there are definitely lots of good reasons to be long, but god knows this market is extremely weak and the bottom can fall out any time.

I sold the TY, but didn't buy ES yet. I'll only buy if they break 1530. But they probably will. I think we'll get a sharp spike in the morning based on AAPL and general oversold condition.

I'm a little more confident in TY setup but I wouldn't exclude a possibility of stocks meltdown. I'm not going to stay in that trade long, probably just through the morning spike.... Good luck to both of us either way:)

As for posting charts, I just use regular Windows MS paint and.... http://imageshack.us/
fast and easy. Right click-copy image from wherever you're copying, paste it into MS paint and then upload on imageshack.

I am already in at 1527...another sleepless night! LOL

[beta]

ES.. looks like if we break 1530 or so, we can easily go 12-13 points in a blink. Momentum has turned positive for now.

The key pivot Im watching is SPX 1531 (cash), i.e., bounce Fibo%50.

Move > 1531, odds are a run to higher-high double top (1560-1570) to complete the Wave 5 count.

Conversely, resistance @ 1531 sets up a "C" down to 1484, to retest the June lows.

Based on individual charts, the latter scenario is more likely IMO, and long-term, has more bullish implications.

Also, not ruling out a retest of monthly lows in Sept-Oct. based on a correction of the larger pattern off the March 07 lows.

Edited by beta, 25 July 2007 - 11:19 PM.

[ogm]

darn, Am I glad I didn't get stopped into ES overnight. Came to a hair. TY stopped out overnight for a good size loss. Looks like we're going to see some fear.

Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 06:23 AM.

[jawndissedi]

darn, Am I glad I didn't get stopped into ES overnight. Came to a hair.

TY stopped out overnight for a good size loss.

Looks like we're going to see some fear.

You were just a little early, imho. Short ZB/ZN will pay handsomely in the very near future.

[rkd80]

darn, Am I glad I didn't get stopped into ES overnight. Came to a hair.

TY stopped out overnight for a good size loss.

Looks like we're going to see some fear.

i put in an order to buy at 1531 and never got filled...too bad i closed my shorts