7 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Had the morning bounce sustained for another 30-minutes, we would have had a hourly buy. But why would it ? It's just a bunch of nervous longs who pick the bottom and bail out on those 5-10 points rallies on ES. Sustained rallies come from structurally sound bottoms. For that proper divergences have to be established on the hourly charts and the momentum should turn up. What i am seeing over the last two days is folks are buying on divergences, without waiting for momentum upturn. By the time the momentum turn happens, these folks are already bailing out and we end up with a bad red stick. And then it invites more selling and shorting from momo folks. Me flat and waiting patiently. Missed the short today morning as my limit order did not get filled. Don't have the nerve to chase this market down with wide stops. So wating patiently for either a continuation sell or a countertrend buy. Will post if any of those signals are generated.

[rkd80]

Had the morning bounce sustained for another 30-minutes, we would have had a hourly buy. But why would it ? It's just a bunch of nervous longs who pick the bottom and bail out on those 5-10 points rallies on ES. Sustained rallies come from structurally sound bottoms. For that proper divergences have to be established on the hourly charts and the momentum should turn up. What i am seeing over the last two days is folks are buying on divergences, without waiting for momentum upturn. By the time the momentum turn happens, these folks are already bailing out and we end up with a bad red stick. And then it invites more selling and shorting from momo folks. Me flat and waiting patiently. Missed the short today morning as my limit order did not get filled. Don't have the nerve to chase this market down with wide stops. So wating patiently for either a continuation sell or a countertrend buy. Will post if any of those signals are generated.

good post, definitely delves into the psychology of the ST/Momo traders, something I am definitely interested even though I prefer the swing game. Keep us posted with the signals.

[NAV]

rkd80, I will certainly post my hourly signals. I used to play the 5-min charts pretty well a few years back. I tried doing it the last couple of days and i did not do too well at all. And my blood pressure shot up quite a bit. I think i am growing a bit old for these 5-min daytrading stuff. Will stick to the hourly charts. Life is much easier and dont' have to stare at the screen constantly, making 100 decisions in a day.

[arbman]

P/C ratio steadily declined since 9:30am, it is high, but you would expect the opposite for a bottom... The crowd is still very much conditioned to buy...

[vitaminm]

Nav, Is your hourly signal based on two days,weekly or monthly chart?

[NAV]

Nav,

Is your hourly signal based on two days,weekly or monthly chart?

Not sure i understand your question. It's based on the 60-min chart.

[rkd80]

60 min charts are definitely the way to go for sanity purposes and in some cases health. If you know your blood level went up then definitely stay away. I suspect you would do fine on a short-term level, but past couple of days were tough as hell to trade and extremely swingy. thanks for your contribution as always

[vitaminm]

Nav,

Is your hourly signal based on two days,weekly or monthly chart?

Not sure i understand your question. It's based on the 60-min chart.

On some chart system they don't show 60min change frequency on 1day,3days time frame but only on 5 days.