7 replies to this topic

[rkd80]

What impact will this have on the market tomorrow? Anyone holding longs over night?

[arbman]

You have to be nuts to hold anything overnight in this environment, or a very long term investment horizon... I would not hold anything long overnight before the credit spreads start to come down and the breath turns up... - kisa

[rkd80]

i am not sure why i did it, but i hung on to them. couple of ES and 1 ER2. my fear is to get shaken out tomorrow and if the losses pile up, i will. otherwise, i think we can rally substantially only to form another leg down. I dunno about longterm, but the IT picture is quite bearish and we have a lot of room to go, maybe Feb 27. levels if not further. But for now, a good 30-40 points on the SPX is what I am expecting. As always, timing is everything and its quite difficult to time it right.

[arbman]

The daily momentum is down and the oversold bounce was respectable for a day trade, but not convincing to hold overnight...

[ogm]

I'm about 50% loaded on longs overnight. Odds are the bottom is in. GDP tomorrow is expected to be up 3+% due to some accounting gimmicks with inventories. It will be probably heralded by bulls as a sign of strong economy, and a chance to squeeze the shorts. I also think that for the sort term the situation in financials is priced it. High yields funds took a lot of damage. But the reality is, money managers have to put their money somewhere, so after this carnage the high yield starts looking good. I'm not saying that subprime and LBO problems are going away, just that for the short term at least everyone is aware of them, which makes it a tradable bottom, IMO. In combination with deeply oversold conditions. I think we'll rally a bit here, then we'll see. Longer term charts are starting to look iffy.

Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 05:23 PM.

[gorydog]

I'm about 50% loaded on longs overnight. Odds are the bottom is in.

GDP tomorrow is expected to be up 3+% due to some accounting gimmicks with inventories. It will be probably heralded by bulls as a sign of strong economy, and a chance to squeeze the shorts.

I also think that for the sort term the situation in financials is priced it. High yields funds took a lot of damage. But the reality is, money managers have to put their money somewhere, so after this carnage the high yield starts looking good. I'm not saying that subprime and LBO problems are going away, just that for the short term at least everyone is aware of them, which makes it a tradable bottom, IMO. In combination with deeply oversold conditions.

I think we'll rally a bit here, then we'll see. Longer term charts are starting to look iffy.

I'll add that below the lows of the day, I see a long way down - say 1000 dow points at least. I held overnight, but thinking about it, it wasn't smart to hold - more of a gamble that a reasoned trade. Greed got me, on a day most were driven by fear.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p20733735403&a=111502423&r=3877.png

GD

[thespookyone]

" But for now, a good 30-40 points on the SPX is what I am expecting. " I guess then, you are calling for a bottom, right here-as you are looking for a full retracement of todays loss? I don't really see anything that says that to me. A bounce, probably-but I don't think we are done on the downside yet. I can't remember in my past trading where one hard down day signalled the bottom-it sure didn't in March, when we bounced the next day-then went on to lower lows. My thought is you get about a 12-14 point bounce tomorrow, and at best-hold half of it into the close. Also, if the sentiment here on the board is any indicator-an awful lot of folks are ready to call a real quick bottom here-fear seems fairly absent. For all of the charsts shown with major lows in NAMO, ect.-thet all look to me to have some room left in them-compared to serious previous bottoms. At any rate, good trading to all. Spooky

[rkd80]

30-40 maybe a bit much, you are right. 20 is probably much more reasonable, although depending on the severity of the move it could get higher as shorts cover.

of the much more likely scenario is that we open flat and sell off again like it so often happens - then i cant stand the loss and get out. yeah, i suck at this.

" But for now, a good 30-40 points on the SPX is what I am expecting. "

I guess then, you are calling for a bottom, right here-as you are looking for a full retracement of todays loss? I don't really see anything that says that to me. A bounce, probably-but I don't think we are done on the downside yet. I can't remember in my past trading where one hard down day signalled the bottom-it sure didn't in March, when we bounced the next day-then went on to lower lows. My thought is you get about a 12-14 point bounce tomorrow, and at best-hold half of it into the close. Also, if the sentiment here on the board is any indicator-an awful lot of folks are ready to call a real quick bottom here-fear seems fairly absent. For all of the charsts shown with major lows in NAMO, ect.-thet all look to me to have some room left in them-compared to serious previous bottoms. At any rate, good trading to all.

Spooky