6 replies to this topic

[zedor]

This market will take every opportunity and turn to shake off the shorts.

Yesterdays low is or could be a good place for the nimble to countertrend trade. However the long term big move is bearish in my view.

Holding all core shorts including AAPL and doing some scalp trading on the bounces.

AAPLS 20 point swing dance Wed in post market hours was very very bearish.

Edited by zedor, 27 July 2007 - 06:10 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

The 50-week us uptrending and we are above it. The 200-day is uptrending and we are above it. The sentiment signature never gave you a Bull Market top warning. I'd say that you'd do better to short crummy stocks that are broken rather than top pick AAPL. Sure, it's probably way over priced, but it has sponsorship. LOTS of sponsorship. Greenie's SRS (that I screwed up and read as SH) is probably a better play (long there, as it's a short ETF). In a Bull market, and this is still a Bull by most reasonable measures, it's better to short laggards and the new low list than the new high list. It's just a higher odds play. Mark

[ogm]

The 50-week us uptrending and we are above it.

The 200-day is uptrending and we are above it.

The sentiment signature never gave you a Bull Market top warning.

I'd say that you'd do better to short crummy stocks that are broken rather than top pick AAPL. Sure, it's probably way over priced, but it has sponsorship. LOTS of sponsorship.

Greenie's SRS (that I screwed up and read as SH) is probably a better play (long there, as it's a short ETF).

In a Bull market, and this is still a Bull by most reasonable measures, it's better to short laggards and the new low list than the new high list. It's just a higher odds play.

Mark

He'll go crazy looking through new lows list

We had 800 new lows yesterday.

Edited by ogm, 27 July 2007 - 06:27 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Yeah, I read that as Bearish, but kinda weird. I mean, for the longest time there were lots of new highs and few new lows and then suddenly there are a ton. Maybe this has happened before and I haven't noticed, but this seems like a lot, fast. Mark

[ogm]

Yeah, I read that as Bearish, but kinda weird. I mean, for the longest time there were lots of new highs and few new lows and then suddenly there are a ton. Maybe this has happened before and I haven't noticed, but this seems like a lot, fast.

Mark

The reading of 800 new lows has marked a ST bottom every time this decade. Even during the 2000-2003 bear market.

in 1998 we reached about 1100 new lows at the bottom. There were 2-3 huge new lows readings in a row.

So in the past 10 years, if 800 new lows wasn't a ST bottom, if was darn close to it.

Edited by ogm, 27 July 2007 - 06:57 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Thanks. Good heads up. See signal above.

[emdee]

Here is an overlay of the NYSE vs NYSE new lows

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p90895438853&a=113036866&r=151.png